BULLETIN FLORIDA MUSEUM NATURAL HISTORY 38(1)


of northern and central Florida. I further suggest that G. carolinensis survives
long-term droughts because of its large population size and use of a broad range of
habitats, and because at least some individuals are opportunistic, rather than
philopatric, in their choice of breeding sites. I predict that localized extinctions
occur during severe droughts at certain breeding sites, although this remains to be
proven.
 Although the trend in amphibian community studies has been toward
controlled manipulative experiments (Jaeger and Walls 1989; Morin 1989; Wilbur
1989), the value of long-term ecological monitoring is increasingly recognized
(Franklin 1989; Taylor 1989). Franklin (1989) noted that long-term studies are
needed to examine ecological processes that are slow, rare, episodic, or which
contain high degrees of variability, or involve subtle and complex phenomena, or
to test and formulate theory. The response of the population of G. carolinensis at
Breezeway Pond and its surrounding uplands to episodic drought is certainly
complex, subtle, and probably extends over time. Population parameters (e.g. sex
ratio, age and size-class structure, larval duration, and survivorship) are certainly
variable, even without environmental uncertainty. Although lasting five years, this
study could not answer many important questions about this and other amphibian
species' responses to environmental perturbations.
 Until monitoring encompasses longer time periods, the long-term effects of
environmental perturbations on a species or community must remain speculative.
If prolonged drought severely stresses amphibian communities, the response
probably lasts many years, and the effects probably vary locally and species-
specifically. On the other hand, short-term droughts may have no lasting effects
(Cypert 1961). Population recovery will depend on a drought's duration, the
presence of refugia, a species' colonization abilities and life history plasticity, and
its habitat requirements and their availability. These considerations are important
for determining the long-term effects of drought-induced declines in amphibian
populations. Separating natural fluctuations in community composition and
structure from human-caused or environmentally related declines will not be
possible without long-term monitoring studies. The baseline data gathered in the
present study provide an example of the information that will be needed.


 LITERATURE CITED


Anderson, P. K. 1954. Studies in the ecology of the narrow-mouthed toad, Microhyla carolinensis
 carolinensis. Tulane Stud. Zool. 2:15-46.
Ashton, R. E., Jr., and P. S. Ashton. 1985. Handbook of Reptiles and Amphibians of Florida. Part 3. The
 Amphibians. Windward Publ., Inc., Miami.
Auffenberg, W., and W. W. Milstead. 1965. Reptiles in the Quaternary of North America. Pp. 557-568 in
 The Quaternary of the United States, VII Congress. Intl. Assoc. Quaternary Research. Princeton
 Univ. Press.