—Continued from previous page The other scenario is if the Bermuda High weakens and a cold front is moving into the western Atlantic. The tropical cyclone will turn more northwestward ahead of the cold front over the western Atlantic and eventually turn more north to northeastward while weakening over cooler waters. In this case, this usu- ally will spare the eastern Caribbean Sea from the direct impact of a tropical cyclone (see Figure 4). Outside of the tropical waves and tropical cyclones, ee te fe bets) Large northerly swells are still possible during the spring, particularly when lows develop along stalled. cold fronts the Bermuda High will generate tradewinds of approx- imately ten to 15 knots (15 to 20 knots between islands) and northeast to east swells of three to six feet. Cold fronts will not impact the eastern Caribbean Sea during this time of year as these fronts only extend as far south as 32°N to 33°N. September is usually the peak of the Atlantic hurri- cane season when sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are highest. Tropical waves continue to move over the eastern Caribbean Sea every two to three days in September, then the interval gradually lengthens to every three to four days and the tropical waves grow weaker towards the end of October. Tropical cyclones will continue with similar paths across the Atlantic Ocean during September and through the middle of October. From the middle of October through November, the eastern Atlantic sea surface tempera- tures cool off and conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone development. Any tropical cyclones that do develop over the central tropical Atlantic will generally turn more northwest and northward ahead of stronger cold fronts. A pattern similar to that of spring occurs again dur- ing October and November as cut-off gales develop over the western Atlantic Ocean and could potentially develop tropical or subtropical characteristics while meandering north of the northern Caribbean Sea. Large northerly swells will develop again over the northern islands due to these systems but will subside once the cut-off gale moves to the northeast ahead of a cold front. At the same time, tropical cyclone devel- opment becomes more favorable in the western Caribbean Sea again and this pattern generally lasts until the end of November. November 30th is the offi- cial end to the Atlantic hurricane season. Tradewinds gradually increase across the eastern Caribbean Sea through autumn as highs strengthen and become more frequent as colder air returns from the north. Tradewinds will increase to east to north- east at 15 to 20 knots, with 20 to 25 knots developing between islands, and swells will build again to seven to ten feet. The highest conditions will develop in November. Cold fronts will begin to progress south- ward and track through the northern and central Bahamas by November. This will allow for lulls in the tradewinds once these fronts stall to the west. Having a general knowledge of the weather allows a mariner to look for the best window of opportunities to make longer passages or island hop when the weather is less than ideal. Outside of the tropical months, it is best to make the longer transits when a ridge of high pressure weakens and a cold front is approaching or stalling to the west of the Eastern Caribbean to take advantage of the lowering winds and seas. Once a cold front has moved through, particularly in the winter, it is best to stay in port to allow the worst weather to subside behind the front. Once the high has estab- lished itself, then island hopping or transiting in lee of the islands to minimize exposure to the higher swells is the best option depending on what each individual vessel can handle. During the tropical months always monitor the tropics, especially to the east. It is best to time a tran- Ifthe Bermuda High weakens and a cold front is moving into the western Atlantic, a tropical cyclone will turn more northwestward ahead of the cold front sit in order to arrive at your destination prior to a tropical wave’s approach, to avoid stronger tradewinds and thunderstorms, or to depart immediately after a tropical wave exits the area. Always stay updated with a trained meteorologist for any potential tropical activity and be prepared to have a bail-out port in mind in case a tropical cyclone threatens the region. The more southern waters of the eastern Caribbean Sea are less likely to encounter a strong tropical cyclone and any tropical cyclones that do pass near the region are generally weaker on the southern semi- circle of the system. Keeping these general weather features and rout- ing options in mind will help mariners seek the best opportunities to plan their passages and take the necessary precautions if inclement weather devel- ops for each season. This way those visions of favor- able winds, seas and sunny skies will become more of a reality for that next trip across the eastern Caribbean Sea. Amanda Delaney is a Senior Meteorologist at Weather Routing Inc., which provides routing/forecast assis- tance and meteorological consultation for yachts and. cargo ships, in business since 1961. For more informa- tion contact wri@wriwx.com or (518) 798-1110. 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