laborers will be women as computers and machines with
automatic controls and sensors become available and
make physical strength less essential. Agricultural pro-
duction, marketing and the agribusiness infrastructures
will depend increasingly on mechanization, some of
which will replace less-skilled labor. Other machines will
perform new functions. All will require more highly
skilled labor.

Fossil Energy
 It is projected that fossil energy will become scarcer
 and more expensive. The importance of agricultural pro-
 duction will prompt development of technologies to con-
 serve fossil energy and reduce the importation of fossil
 fuels. The possible use of biomass from agriculture as
 fuels and feedstocks for both farm and non-farm sectors
 will increase the importance of developing a greater pro-
 ductive capacity.

 Conservation and Soil-Enhancing Technology
 The productive capacities projected rely on the abili-
ty to invest in the improvement of U.S. soils to enhance
as well as maintain land resources. Research during the
next 50 years should generate technologies to increase
opportunities to invest in and improve soils. Retarda-
tion of degradation and conservation of soils will not be
enough. We must move forward with soil-improving in-
vestments. Existing technologies, plus the new tillage,
management and cropping practices recommended
herein, will make it possible to farm the present acreage
plus 50 or 60 million additional acres without serious
soil loss or environmental degradation. We will also need
research to permit intensive cropping mixes, double-
cropping, and the shifting of more land to corn, soy-
beans, other grains and vegetables and fruits.

Water Resources
 The research recommended herein will make it
possible to develop technologies to conserve water and
irrigate an additional 50 million acres in the next 50
years. Much of the additional irrigation should be sup-
plemental in humid areas, where water supplies are
more abundant and cheaper, rather than in desert coun-
try. Technologies to be developed will depend on both
public and private investments and on the demand for
farm products.

Institutional Change
 The technological advances postulated are large. Dur-
ing the next 50 years, these advances will create a danger
that farm entrepreneurs will expand production more
rapidly than foreign and domestic markets can absorb
the output. The consequence would be low prices and/or
surpluses. Further, some of the technologies will favor


the development of adverse political, social and
economic structures in agriculture and agribusiness.
Such developments will make it necessary that PS, SM
and DISC research be done in the social sciences to guide
technological advance, investments in new technology
and structural change in agriculture and agribusiness
into socially desirable patterns.

Human Development
 The higher levels of per capital income anticipated for
both the farm and non-farm sectors imply virtual elimi-
nation of stoop labor in agriculture during the next 50
years. There will, however, be a substantial increase in
the use of highly skilled farm workers, entrepreneurs,
civil servants, hired personnel, family members and
research scientists in both the public and private sectors
doing PS, SM and DISC research. All will need to be
trained to deal with new, complex and sometimes
dangerous technologies. Research on development of
human capital to handle the projected highly complex,
expanding and more productive agriculture will become
increasingly important.


 Required Funding, Personnel
 and Administrative Restructuring

 Agricultural research will require considerable im-
provement in budgets, personnel and administrative
structures to meet the targets of production.

Budgetary Requirements
 Our recommendations call for immediate strengthen-
ing of the ARE's research budget. This will ensure, first,
the necessary SM and PS research capacity to convert
DISC knowledge now on hand or soon to be developed
into technologies, institutions and the skilled human
resources needed in tho-e ne.xt 15 to 30 years; second, a
disciplinary capacity to produce supporting research for
changes in technology, institutions and human skills
needed in the next 15 to 50 years; and third, the
maintenance and expansion of our capacity to do PS,
SM and DISC research over the next 50 years.
 Our funding recommendations are judgmental. They
are from our knowledge of DISC research relevant for
agriculture, the practical problems of agriculture, and
the issues and subjects important for agricultural ad-
vance. There is a general consistency of the budgetary
requirements projected here and those of White and
Havlicek (1982); Knutson and Tweeten (1979) and Lu,
Cline and Quance (1979). Had they built a quantitative
model to project budgetary needs, their judgments
would have been built into the model, and their model
would have projected requirements similar to those
recommended herein. It is likely that the agreement