The present funding scenario presumes a 40 percent in-
crease in yields by 2030. It will also involve the near
elimination of stoop labor from agriculture but not as
large an expansion in the use of skilled labor as in
Fig. 2. Similarly, less financial capital and energy will
be required. This scenario also makes much less grain
potentially available for use as an industrial feedstock
and for the manufacture of fuels.
 To achieve what we have targeted for the next 50
years will require the attainment of certain research ob-
jectives, expanded funding, more personnel and restruc-
turing of agricultural research both within and outside
the ARE. First are given the research and objectives;
secondly, the required funding, personnel and restruc-
turing to increase agricultural productivity 60 percent
by 2010 and 100 percent by 2030.


 Research Objectives

Increases in Yields
 The target for corn is an increase in the potential com-
 mercial yield of about 2 percent per year. It will be more
 difficult to increase commercial yields of grain sorghum,
 oats, barley and wheat, primarily because these crops



 Figure 3. Projections for Present Le
 for Technological Advance
 provements in Institutions

 200 ----------------_ --------------i ----
 200








 1 150
 co
 0


 compete poorly with corn and soybeans for use of the
 best land. Thus, smaller percentage increases are
 targeted. A 25 percent increase in potential commercial
 soybean yields is projected for 2010 and a 66 percent in-
 crease by 2030. Increased funding for research in the
 biophysical disciplines outlined in Part III will result in
 technologies, beginning in the late 1990s, to enhance
 both the stability and the magnitude of agricultural pro-
 duction. The additional funding for DISC biological
 research will also result in greater productivity of feeds
 for producing dairy, pork, poultry and beef products.


 Labor-Saving Technology
 The projections reflect increasing real wage rates over
 the next 50 years. Farmers should expect to participate
 in the increased prosperity. This means more mechanical
 technology to replace low-paid, unskilled labor in com-
 mercial agriculture and to do new things to improve the
 quality of farm products and marketing services. The
 development of mechanical technology should not be
 curtailed (as some have recently advocated) with the aim
 of preserving agriculture as it once existed or now exists.
 There will also be a severalfold increase by 2030 in the
 use of the higher paid skilled labor required to handle
 complex agricultural technologies. Many of these skilled



vels of Agricultural Research Funding
and Necessary Accompanying Im-
and Human Skills, U.S., 1980-2030


1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
 Agricultural Research
 Establishment (ARE) Funding Both at 1983 levels maintained in real dollars and as a proportion of the
 Competitive Grants Funding value of agricultural output
 for Use Outside as well as
 Inside ARE