to improve our rural institutions and people. This should
be done in the 1980-2010 period to be prepared for the
rapid changes in technology that will take place in U.S.
agriculture during 2010-2030.
 The productivity targets outlined above for the years
2010 and 2030 are not attainable with present levels of
funding. If the present financial resources are directed
to PS and SM research support, it is our judgment that
DISC research beginning in the 1990s will be inadequate
and that the levels of productive capacity we target for
2010 and 2030 cannot be met. Alternatively, if funds are
diverted from PS and SM research from 1984 to 2000
to do the necessary DISC research, then the PS and SM
research required for the 2010 targets will be neglected.
The difficulty is further confounded by the inevitable
increase in funding required for maintenance research
that accompanies high levels of productivity.
 Fig. 3 presents the consequences of present levels of
funding until 2030. "Present funding levels" means keep-
ing pace with inflation as a percentage of the value of
agricultural output. Thus, over a 50-year period, we an-


Figure 2.


ticipate that funding, in real dollars, would increase 60
percent as we project a 60 percent increase in the capaci-
ty of agriculture to produce. This also implies some
reallocation of research funds from the biological and
physical sciences for institutional changes and im-
provements of human capital. This is considered neces-
sary to generate, distribute and use the technologies
created. Public funding cannot be completely and
advantageously replaced by private funding.

 Fig. 3 shows only a 60 percent increase in potential
agricultural output over the next 50 years and a 36 per-
cent increase for the next 30 years. The rate of increase
may be greater in the first 30 than in the last 20 years
of the next half-century because funding levels for sup-
porting DISC research will be increasingly inadequate.
Both Figs. 2 and 3 indicate a 35 percent increase in
population over the 50-year period and a 16 percent in-
crease in land used for the production of crops and im-
proved roughages. Inadequate funding for soil
maintenance and erosion control research, however,
may push the land area upward because of greater losses.


1990


10% Increase per Year
 Compounded


2000


2010 2020


V


 v
Maintained at 1994 levels in Real Dollars and as
a Proportion of the Value of Agricultural Output


Agricultural Research Establishment (ARE) Funding


Six-fold Increase
 in 1985


 V
Maintained in Real Dollars and as a Proportion
 of the Value of Agricultural Output


Competitive Grants Funding for Use Outside as well as Inside ARE


Projections for Recommended Levels of Agricultural Research
Funding for Technological and Necessary Accompanying Im-
provements in Institutions and Human Skills, U.S., 1980-2030


200









150 -









100 La
 1980


, 200





170






.. 135

S125

 116



 2030
 /


\