indicate a drop in U.S. per capital real income by 2030;
instead, they presume substantial increases in real per
capital GNP. NIRAP I shows a drop in prices of farm
products relative to prices paid by farmers-in other
words, the real price of farm products at the farm level
is projected to fall despite possible resource constraints.
With per capital incomes increasing and the real prices
of farm products falling, the real cost of labor in farm-
ing and food marketing is projected to rise. Such an in-
crease would be expected to increase the demand for
labor-saving technology in agriculture. It should also be
expected to increase the size of farm required for a full-
time farmer to make a net income comparable to those
earned by non-farmers with comparable investments.
Small farms operated by part-time farmers, however,
will likely continue to increase in numbers in areas pro-
viding off-farm employment opportunities. Both types
of farms will require labor-saving technologies.


 That which follows is in four parts. Part I presents
two classifications: first, the cutting edges of agricultural
advance, and second, the kinds of research done in the
agricultural research establishment (ARE). Part II deals
with the criticisms of the ARE that are made by three
activist and influential groups in our society, and various
philosophies that guide evaluations of the ARE. Part III
presents detailed research priorities following the
classifications presented in Part I. These priorities are
influenced by the projections considered above. They
also reflect the knowledge that the authors have of the
ARE, other research agencies and the different capabil-
ities of these agencies to do the three kinds of agricultural
research considered in Part I. Part IV indicates what will
be required to do what needs to be done in the next 50
years.