Executive Summary


 Projections for American agriculture indicate that in-
ternational competition in commodity markets, possi-
ble energy shortages and foreign exchange needs to buy
energy, demands for improved world and U.S. diets, and
population growth make it advantageous for the United
States to develop capacity to double agricultural pro-
duction in the next half-century or so. Capacity to pro-
duce is not the same as actual production. Increases in
capacity resulting from research to improve technology
increase production only when knowledge of the
technology is distributed to producers and the inputs for
production (seeds, plants, machines, chemicals, etc.) in
which technology is imbedded are produced,
distributed, purchased and used by producers.
 We believe it to be nationally advantageous to strive
for a 60 percent increase in capacity by 2010 and a 100
percent increase by 2030. We can always decide to make
or not make the investments to convert capacity into ac-
tual ability to produce. To have such capacity requires
an average annual growth rate of 2 percent per year.
To do this by 2030, we would need to crop an additional
50 to 60 million acres. We would also need to be able
to crop more intensely, to produce much higher crop
yields and to use more productive livestock. Constraints
on land, water and energy use would require an ability
to shift agricultural production systems to more reliance
on science and technology, human skills, improved in-
stitutions and policies, and a much expanded and im-
proved capital base. As in recent decades, these will con-
tinue to be the four prime movers for agricultural
advance.
 The agricultural research required to secure these ad-
vances in capacity may be classified in three categories:
problem-solving (PS), subject-matter (SM) and basic or
disciplinary (DISC).
 PS research is designed to solve problems on farms,
for industries, for governments and in homes. Of necessi-
ty, it is multidisciplinary across the social as well as the
biological and physical sciences. PS research will con-
tinue to be essential and of increasing importance,
though specific problems are difficult to foresee.
 SM research produces information on subjects impor-


tant to farmers, consumers and others facing important
sets of problems. It is.also multidisciplinary. SM research
in agriculture is done mainly in agricultural college
departments and in USDA agencies and laboratories.
 DISC (basic) research is becoming increasingly im-
portant for food and agriculture. DISC research is that
designed to improve the theories, techniques and basic
measurements of a particular academic discipline such
as chemistry or economics.
 Overriding objectives for agricultural research will be
greater efficiency and stability of production, increased
profitability, greater food safety, improved nutritional
values, a more competitive position for trade on inter-
national markets, and more resource-sparing
technologies.
 Our report gives examples of PS research needed in
the decades ahead. It also contains much detail on feasi-
ble, promising SM and relevant DISC research for the
years ahead to attain the desired levels of production
capacity.
 The targets we accept as reasonable, feasible and in
the national interest include creating capacity to: in-
crease yields an average of 40 to 50 percent by 2010 and
65 to 80 percent by 2030; use an additional 35 to 40
million acres by 2010 and 50 to 60 million more fragile
soils in stressed environments for crops and improved
forages by 2030; and use the same or less fossil energy
while increasing the use of skilled labor, capital and ex-
pendable inputs to virtually eliminate unskilled "stoop"
labor. In addition to better technologies, we will need
improved institutions and more skilled people. We
would also have to ensure an agricultural social and
economic structure that adds to rather than detracts
from the quality of life of both rural and urban people.

 Attaining such capacities will require new and im-
proved crop varieties developed through traditional
plant breeding and especially from genetic engineering.
Scientists should work to develop stress-resistant
varieties, as well as cultural and biochemical means of
overcoming environmental stresses, diseases and pests.
We will also need cultural and biochemical as well as