Chapter I


Box 1.4 Food Self-sufficiency versus Export Production

The debate on the choice of subsistence production versus export production as a means of improving a
country's food security is illustrated for the case of Egypt.

Given the production techniques in use in Egypt, the country is overpopulated, with less than 3 million
hectares of land for 40 million people. The area under agriculture cannot be extended, in fact some of the
existing land under cultivation is already threatened by increasing salinity and the demand for land for non-
agricultural uses is rising.
Under these circumstances, should the government try to increase the rate of food self-sufficiency when
population growth is increasing food needs by replacing export crops by cereal production?

According to the author, the output of a hectare of exported cotton allows for the import of a greater
amount of cereals than the amount which would be produced if the hectare were devoted to cereal
production. Food availability would actually be decreased by shifting land into food production.

Source: Scobie, 1981


Those who believe self-sufficiency is more beneficial argue that comparative advantage in
export crops such as tea or rubber is not inherent in a country's physical resources, but a
result of historical investment in certain industries often by colonising powers who wanted
raw materials for their own industries or consumption. They argue that this has locked some
countries into producing commodities which face declining terms of trade on inherently
unstable international markets. Far from increasing their food security, these countries have
declining and wildly fluctuating export earnings, thus making it difficult to plan imports and
develop medium-term sectoral or national development plans.

It is a matter for empirical investigation whether or not the prices for specific non-food
agricultural commodities have been declining relative to cereal prices. In some cases this is
the case, but not in others. Again, some commodity markets have been quite unstable in
recent years and this has caused difficulties for some countries. However, there is no
evidence that in general instability in export earnings by itself hinders growth if the average
level of GNP is higher than it would be in the absence of such specialisation.

A more significant argument for greater emphasis on food self-sufficiency can be made
when a country's main food staple is not traded internationally in great amounts, resulting in
a thin market. This is the case for white maize, and possibly for rice. When this happens an
increase in demand from more than one major importer can push prices up and create
difficulties for all importers.

The problems of dependence on one crop are also put forward as a reason for emphasising
food self-sufficiency. This is a valid argument against dependence on one major export crop,
which tends to be a characteristic of very poor countries. Richer countries tend to have
greater diversity of commodities, so that a country like Brazil will export other commodities,
such as soy beans, even though coffee is its major export earner. This is an argument for
export diversification as much as concentration on food production.


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