Chapter I


3.2 Food security, population and environment

At current rates of population growth, the population of the world is growing by
approximately one billion people per decade. One of the major problems facing the global
society is how to produce adequate food for these numbers without causing environmental
degradation. The population size for the next decade or so will probably be only marginally
affected by fertility decisions made now, but these will be critical for future decades.

The population is growing fastest where people are poorest.For poor people high fertility may
be a reasonable and logical choice. Labour is their main asset and children are valued for their
hands rather than their heads. Yet for countries and regions as a whole, high population
growth can be an important factor in immiserisation. In Africa, for example, although there
was positive growth in income and food production over the 1980s, this was surpassed by
higher population growth rates. As a result per capital growth rates were negative.

The more quickly countries enter into the demographic transition (movement from a situation
of high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates), the more
population growth will slow down. Increasingly the evidence is that two factors are very
significant in speeding a country's progress through the demographic transition. One is the\
overall prosperity of the country, and in particular the prosperity of the poorest in the country.)
As food security increases, and poverty decreases, fertility rates decline. This is to a larga'
extent because of the decrease in uncertainty facing poor families. The infant mortality rate
declines, so children are more likely to survive. As households become better off, they
become more interested in adding to the quality of human capital, rather than simply
increasing numbers. Education for their children becomes affordable.

 The second element concerns the position of women in society. As women become more
 educated and have.more power within the household, then fertility rates fall. Women's options
 increase and they are no longer valued primarily for their fertility.

 Thus for countries concerned about containing population growth, it is important to ensure
 that economic growth occurs in such a way as to increase food security for the poorest and
 ensure access to education for women and children.

 Reducing population growth rates is also important for environmental concerns. Population
 growth leads to decreasing per capital availability of fixed resources, such as land, and to a
 lesser extent water. Although technical change can increase productivity of these resources,
 this technical change, in particular the use of chemical fertilisers and pesticides can in itself .
 cause environmental problems.

 In the next two decades, land degradation is projected to cause major environmental problems
 in South East Asia and Latin America, to threaten food supplies from irrigated areas in South
 and South East Asia, and to threaten the food security of the poor, particularly in South and
 West Asia and Africa. It is technically feasible to rehabilitate most degrade land, but poverty.
 lack of technology, low land values and inadequate policy restrict farmers' ability to do so.



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