Chapter 1


Table 1.3 gives data on total production of cereals by region, and on a per caput basis, for
three time periods, plus projections to the year 2010. It also gives the net cereal trade by
region for the same time periods. The table shows that the developed world and the
developing world both produce roughly the same amount of cereals, but that this translates
into roughly three times as much per caput in the developed world as in the developing
countries. At present the developed countries, with the exception of the ex-Centrally Planned
Economies, are net cereal exporters, and it is predicted that by the year 2010 the ex-CPEs
will also become net exporters when taken as a whole. The net cereal imports of the
developing country groups have increased over time, and this is predicted to continue.

Cereals are only part of the total picture. Where countries have a clear comparative
advantage in producing non-cereal crops or livestock for export, then it may make sense to
increase dependence on the world market by exporting and using foreign exchange to import
cereals (this is discussed in more depth in section 4.2 of this chapter). Also in many
countries, particularly in Africa, root crops may be as important as cereals ,if not more so, in
providing the starchy staple base of the diet. However the tendency for developing countries
to become net cereal importers is becoming more pronounced and will continue as incomes
increase and along with this the demand for food. [see Box 1.2 on the situation in China]. As
developing countries turn more and more to intensive methods of livestock rearing the
derived demand for cereals and root crops for animal feed will increase import demands even
more. This has serious implications in terms of the vulnerability to international price rises
of food systems and food security in low income countries where there are significant
foreign exchange constraints.

 Box 1.2 China and the future global food situation

 There has been much debate recently on the future of the grain economy in China. Some observers
 believe that grain imports will increase rapidly over the next few decades, placing considerable strain
 on world grain imports. Chinese scientists maintain that their country will remain self-sufficient.
 Whatever the outcome, this will have serious implications for world agricultural trade.

 China was the largest producer of cereals in the world by the early 1990s. About 20% of that
 production went to animal feedstuffs. China is experiencing rapid income growth and high levels of
 urbanisation, both of which increase the market demand for cereals, either directly, or indirectly
 through increasing demand for meat. Does the evidence indicate that production can keep up with
 this growing demand? Technology, e.g. in hybrid rice, has been the main engine of agricultural
 growth in China. Investment in the research system stagnated in the 1980s and only resumed real
 growth in the 1990s. This has affected the rate of growth of production.

 IFPRI researchers project that food demand will increasingly switch to meat and by 2020 feedgrain
 will make up 40% of total grain utilisation. By 2020, grain imports are projected to stabilise at around
 43 million tons, over 10% of production levels, but not enough to swamp world grain markets.
 However, if domestic supply breaks down, because of declining investment in the agricultural sector.
 then China's demand for grain imports could equal the total amount of grain currently trading on
 world markets.

 Source: IFPRI, 2020 Brief no. 20, 1995.


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