Trends in
 Cereal Production

Cereal Production
in the Developing World
Of the major cereal grains grown in
developing countries, rice is the
most important in terms of quantity
produced, followed by wheat, maize,
and finally millet and sorghum
(Table 1).3 These rankings have not
changed significantly over the past
three decades, although the impor-
tance of millet and sorghum has
diminished as the area planted to
these crops has declined.

When historical production data for
each of the four major cereals are


just as substantial. Yield increases
in wheat and rice were concentrated
in the decade after the mid-1960s,
whereas those in maize began only
in the early 1970s and continued
well into the 1980s.

Maize Production
in the Developing World
Maize yields in the developing
world have experienced sustained
growth during the past 30 years,
but these gains have not been
distributed uniformly. At least three
factors explain the pronounced
geographical variability in maize
yield gains. First, much of the
world's maize is grown in marginal
environments characterized by un-
I;-l IA 4 --mi f .ll i l-, C il f ti -ilitx


a wide range of agroclimatic condi-
tions that improved germplasm or
cropping practices cannot always be
diffused rapidly or far. (Wheat and
rice, on the other hand, frequently
are grown in extensive, relatively
homogeneous agroclimatic zones-
often irrigated-where new tech-
nologies can be disseminated more
easily.) Third, hybrid maize seed, a
principal source of yield gains in in-
dustrialized countries, generally re-
quires specialized production and
distribution facilities which are
lacking in many developing coun-
tries.

In view of these considerations, it is
not surprising that maize produc-
tion trends have varied geographi-


decomposed into area planted and Second, maize is grown under s call. Progress has been noticeably
yield, a better perspective emerges
on the sources of production gains
in the developing world (Table 2).
From 1961-65 to 1984-88, average
From 1961-65 to 19 rage Table 1. Area, yield, and production of major cereal crops in develop-
annual production growth rates
were highest for wheat, followed by ing countries, 1984-88
maize, rice, and finally millet and Bh frion
sorghum. These production growth .- rea__
rates were largely attributable to _- -
yield gains, which were particularly Rice 140 3.20 447
strong for wheat (3.7%), maize Wheat 100 2.13 212
(2.6%), and rice (2.3%). These data Maize 80 2.20 176
suggest that the conventional Mie 0.92 69
wisdom that the Green Revolution Millet/sorghum 75 0.92 69
affected primarily wheat and rice is Calculated from FA data.
 Source: Calculated from FAO data.
not quite correct. Over the past
three decades, although yield gains
in wheat more than equalled those
in the other cereals, yield gains in Table 2. Growth rates in area, yield, and production of major cereal
maize kept pace with those crops in developing countries, 1961-65 to 1984-88
achieved in rice. The only difference -.-, -... -...
was that the gains in maize began E-.. rate (%)
later and proceeded more slowly,-
which made them less conspicuous. 77 .. -.oduction
However, the gains in maize were
sustained over a longer period, so Wheat 1.2 3.7 4.9
the cumulative effects have been Maize 1.1 2.6 3.8
 Rice 0.8 2.3 3.0
 Millet/sorghum -0.3 1.5 1.2

 Source: Calculated from FAO data.
3 By convention, data for millet and
 sorghum are combined.


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