245


-0.36), indicating that the breeding pattern with respect

to rainfall changed sometime in the 1960's.

 The plot of moving-5-yr averages of Wood Stork nesting

success (number of fledglings produced) at the Corkscrew

rookery from 1957 to 1975 shows a precipitous decline in

the 1960's and a modest increase in the 1970's (Figure 55).

Figure 56 is a plot of moving-5-yr averages of nesting

success versus moving-5-yr averages of total annual

rainfall at Corkscrew grove. The regression line has a

slope of 451.06 and an unrealistic "y" intercept of -

22,840. The correlation coefficient is 0.92, suggesting

that 84.6% of the trend in nesting success may be explained

by the trend in rainfall. An exponential regression gives

a more realistic relationship because the "y" intercept is

at zero, and the correlation coefficient;is approximately

the same. The years that show the poorest fit to the

curves are 1964 and 1965.