Oils and fats
 Projections have been made of demands for edible oils and fats. The local supply of
these products has increased considerably in recent times and a further significant rise
is predicted since it is assumed that factory capacity can expand almost as fast as demand.
British Guiana imports some domestically produced oils and fats from other territories,
but apart from these, imports are mainly of olive oil and other specialised products for
which local substitutes might not be available. We have therefore projected the demand
for imports separately in Table 22f. It is also assumed that Jamaica will expand factory
capacity sufficiently to export small quantities of oils and fats. Soap is also produced
in the region and supply figures are shown in Table 18c, but no projections of demand
are available.

 The demand for copra, the only important vegetable oil grown in the region, will natu-
rally follow from the demand for oils, fats and soap. In Table 22e we have based the
demand for copra on the needs of the factories, assuming they expand production of oils
and fats to cater to the growth in demand for these products, and the production of soaps
at approximately the same rate. It will be noted that all territories become net importers
of raw materials in 1970 (in Jamaica supplies were projected to fall between 1965 and
1970 on the assumption that there would be hurricane damage in that period). Trinidad
and Tobago and British Guiana are seen as persistent net importers.

 Alternatively, it could of course be assumed that factory capacity increased only in
line with availability of supplies of domestic raw materials. In this case we should have
to assume that finished oils and fats products were imported in greater proportion than
are indicated by Table 22f. By 1975 in Trinidad and Tobago approximately 18% of the
quantity shown as home produced would be imported, and in British Guiana approximately
30 % would be imported.


Roots and starch vegetables
 According to our separate projections of demand and supply a fairly large deficiency
in root crops will arise in all territories during this period. The reasons for this have
been explained in part four. There is a fairly significant trade in roots within the islands
of the Leewards, Windwards and Barbados, and some trade between these islands and
Trinidad and Tobago. This latter trade, however, is unlikely to continue, if, as we pre-
dict, domestic deficiencies arise in other territories.

 The imports of root vegetables from the outside world consist wholly of Irish potatoes,
and it is assumed in the first instance that the deficiencies (see Table 22g) will be met
by importing larger quantities of Irish potatoes. This does not necessarily follow how-
ever. It may be that part of the demand will go unmet or that different types of starch
foods will be substituted. In any case we expect price increases in this product, and it is
probable that final demand will depend, in this case, more on price elasticities and
elasticities of substitution than on income elasticities.