Part Five


 RECONCILIATION




 Chapter 1

 RECONCILIATION OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY AND IMPORT DEMAND


 Having made independent estimates of demand based on projections of income growth,
population growth, and calculated income elasticities of demand (see part three), and in-
dependent estimates of supply based on projections of acreages and yields (see part four),
we now bring these together to estimate import demand, or to estimate how much will be
available for export after local needs have been met. All estimates are in terms of quan-
tities, and unless otherwise stated it is assumed that prices remain constant.


Sugar

 The summary table for sugar is shown in Table 22a. Sugar is of course mainly an ex-
port crop and although very small quantities of specialised products are imported we feel
that import substitution has been carried about as far as is possible, and that the small
quantity of sugar imported is likely to continue to have approximately the same proportion
to total consumption as in the base year. The main object of the summary table is thus
to show how much will be available for export after local needs are met.

 Sugar is used for manufacturing and for household use. These end uses are shown
separately. It must be noted, however, that in Jamaica, household consumption includes
sugar passing through the condensery, and in all territories sugar used for manufactured
sugar preparations such as confectionery is included in household demand. The manufac-
turing demand includes mainly sugar utilised by fruit processors, cake manufacturers
and beverage producers. It will be noted that the amount available for export in 1975
bears approximately the same relationship to total production as in 1958. The movement
in local demand is slightly lower than that for local supply, but manufacturing demand,
projected on the basis of our inter-industry tables (see part two and relevant tables re-
ferred to in Appendix III) increases at a slightly greater rate than supply. Nevertheless,
on the basis of inquiries conducted for the surveys of economic growth (part two) we were
not able to project a very substantial increase in manufacturing demand.


Rice
 The pattern of rice production and trading emerges clearly from Table 22b. British
Guiana, the main producer and supplier to other territories, becomes more important in
this role as production in other territories declines and their demand increases. In
British Guiana approximately 10 % of rice (rough rice, milled rice equivalent) is retained