Chapter 4

 THE ESTIMATION OF TOTAL LOCALLY PRODUCED SUPPLIES OF COMMODITIES


 We have endeavoured to isolate the factors influencing yields and total acreage in the
base period to ascertain the importance of each in total supply. It should be noted however
that many of our source data gave total production as a more reliable figure with rather
less reliable information on yields and acreages. However, having tried to isolate the
scale factor from the intensity factor in the base period, we have for most products pro-
jected these two factors and derived total projected supply from these. It should be em-
phasized that the supply projections were drawn up independently of the demand projections.
Although in the case of subsistence or non-cash consumption, reconciliation had, ofcourse,
to be made at an early phase of the study.

 For sugar we present final supply tables for milled sugar. The totals for cane can be
derived from tables of yields and acreages (Tables lie and 11f). It is the final product,
milled sugar, with which we shall mainly be concerned in our comparison of demand and
supply.

 Final productions of rough rice and milled rice are shown in Table 12a and final projec-
tions are shown mainly in the form of milled rice, with milling rates indicated (Table 12c).
Total production figures for bananas for a past period are not very reliable but we show
projections in Table 13e. For sea island cotton, past trends in production are shown in
Table 14c and projections of production in Table 14f. For tree crops, data on past pro-
duction is extremely scant; we have, however, shown some figures for citrus in Table 15b,
coffee in 16, cocoa in 17a, and copra in 18a. Total production figures for the projections
are shown in rather more detail for cocoa, for which crop the new planting programme has
enabled better estimates to be made than for other tree crops. For vegetables and roots,
figures of acreages and yields were virtually non-existent and our estimates are based
much more on our assessment of the total products. (See Table 19.) Naturally, estimates
of the acreage and yields were used in this assessment, but for the base year at any rate,
estimates of the total supply were considered more reliable than estimates of average
equivalents.

 For livestock products also (see Table 21c), the base year estimates depended on
assessments made of supplies coming forward rather than on assessments of numbers and
yields. For milk, for instance, the total supplies to households and to the condensery were
the basis for the estimates. Data on yields were fragmentary, but of course yields and
stock numbers were taken into account when projecting future supplies.