Chapter 3


 THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN INTENSITY OF PRODUCTION ON TOTAL SUPPLY


 In this chapter we shall consider the influence that changes in intensity of production
have had and are likely to have on supply.

 In measuring intensity of production we have related a quantity of product to land area,
as for instance, tons of cane per acre, or a quantity to unit of production such as coconuts
per tree, or pounds of meat per carcass, milk per cow, and so on. In this section we dis-
cuss the quantitative results of our conclusions on yields. In chapters 5 and 6 we discuss
qualitatively the conditions which influence yields.

 In measuring the influence of yields in total product we wish to abstract this from the
effect of scale on product. One method of doing this is to relate the yields of a base per-
iod to the acreage of a later period and relate the total product that results to that which
actually occurred in later years. This can be expressed by the equation


 Qo
 Q Rn -
 100 =n R R = X Yield factor
 Qn
where Q = Base period yield, Rn= Acreage at period n and Qn = Supply at period n.
 R
 0
 If we use this equation to relate total production of milled sugar, we find that, compar-
ing the period 1940-49 with the period 1950-59, the product for Jamaica in the second
period is 5.5% lowerthan it would have been with the yields of the first period; that for Tri-
nidad andTobago it is 20.3% higher; for the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands and Barba-
dos it is 23% higher; and for British Guiana 17.5% higher.

 Changes in quantities of milled sugar are due mainly to changes in yields of cane per
acre. Factory efficiency and the sucrose content of cane must also influence the quantity
(see discussion of processing-chapter 6). Yields of cane per acre for the period 1950-60
are shown in Table lId. Production of sugar, 1940-60 is shown in Table 11h.

 We have first projected yields of cane per acre; these are shown in Table 11e. In pro-
jecting these yields, various considerations have been taken into account which are de-
scribed in chapters 5 and 6.