Although occupancy of these lands has already started, organisational difficulties such
as lack of credit, housing, and the need for frequent cleaning may make the rate at which
they are occupied slower than was at first expected. Thus the increase in acreages actu-
ally in production is projected as being quite gradual. Past increases in rice acreage are
shown in Table 12aand the projections are shown in Table 12b.

 We have shown past scale of production of bananas, by acreage over a past period in
Table 13a and in Table 13b by the number of bearing roots in 1958, by farm size. The
figures for the time series are felt to be of very dubious reliability. After careful consi-
deration we have often had to select what we felt to be the best of several contradictory
sources.

 In banana production, both land and labour are seen as possible limits to acreage ex-
pansion. In Jamaica, the problem is reduced fertility, particularly on slopes where the
natural vegetation has been removed and erosion has been permitted. This problem is
also apparent in the Windward Islands, although in both Dominica and St. Lucia, due to
land tenure problems, better banana land lies idle while inferior slopes are cultivated,
and there is much room for expansion. Serious discussions have already been held re-
garding the start of an export industry in British Guiana. Here, land is likely to be plen-
tiful, but we do not consider there is likely to be a major development in this period.

 Naturally, at the present time, marketing problems tend to overcloud the future banana
situation; nevertheless, we do not think land limitations are a negligible factor and have
given the above considerations some weight in making supply projections.

 Sea island cotton is grown only in the smaller islands, and although production is very
small it is important in the economies of small islands such as Nevis and Montserrat.
Table 14a shows the acreages under this crop in the West Indies since 1940. The assump-
tions underlying acreage projections shown in Table 14d are that in Antigua, only peasants
will be operating towards the end of the period. The 1,200 acres still in production in
1974/75 is considered to be land suitable for cotton only. In Montserrat, it is considered
that 1, 000 acres or so may be in production, in spite of emigration, because of limited
feasibility of other crops. Similar limitations may apply in Nevis, but here it is thought
other crops will win land from cotton. In St. Vincent it is thought that other crops will
inevitably win land from cotton. Thus we conclude that this industry is likely to decline
Irom about 6,112 acres in 1959/60 to about 4,200 in 1974/75.

 If the acreage declines to this extent, it is also possible that sea island cotton might-
go out of production altogether since it can be spun only on certain spindles and it may be
uneconomic for the processing to be continued if only a negligible quantity is produced.

 Ascertaining the scale of production of citrus trees and coffee for this study has presen-
ted innumerable problems; many of these trees are grown in scattered plantings and can-
not easily be enumerated. The acreage figures shown in Tables 10a to 10d are based on
acreage equivalents estimated in some cases from source material which gives tree popu-
lation only. The acreages have, in some cases, been estimated from conversion factors
suggested by the Farmers Guide (Jamaica Agricultural Society) and from various agricul-
tural ministries and departments.