problems associated with using available source material. Although we get this discrepan-
cy in the total, some figures of individual crops (for instance, rice, sugar, cotton and
banana) are probably rather more accurate than those for food crops and tree crops.

 Starting with sugar cane, we shall discuss the sources and assumptions on which the
figures relating to scale of production are based.

 The main sources of data on sugar cane are the British West Indies Sugar Association
and Sugar Manufacturers' Associations in the various territories, and also information
from agricultural departments. Although of rather greater reliability than information re-
lating to most crops, sugar information is by no means perfect, particularly in relation
to the Windward Islands where there are no large sugar exporting industries and because
much of the crop is produced by peasants.

 Sugar cane acreage can be expressed in two ways, either as acreage cultivated or as
acreage reaped. Sugar cane takes at least 15 months to mature so that of the overall
acreage, only cane that is ripe will be cut. The acreage reaped is thus usually slightly
lower than the acreage cultivated but is not usually lower than 90% or higher than 96% of
the cultivated acreage. The amount of cane that is uncut at the end of a season due to im-
maturity may be the result of a deliberate planting policy; but in recent years, many acres
of mature cane have remained uncut because of strikes, labour disputes, incendiarism,
and in some cases, acute seasonal and regional shortages of labour which could not always
be cured by calling on labour from other more populous islands or areas. In one or two
cases, factory breakdowns have been to blame.

 In Table lla, we have shown acreages reaped for the period 1940-60 as this figure is
considered to be more reliable than the figure for acreages cultivated. It will be noted
that the acreage increased from a total of 231,000 acres in 1940 to 443,747 in 1960. The
greatest increase was in Jamaica-44,484 to 186,787 acres.

 Several estimates of future sugar cane production have been made for this study and
 account has been taken both of the trend since 1940 and the trend since 1950 which is less
 steep than the former. Consideration has been given to the limitations on good sugar land
 which have already slowed down expansion in such territories as Barbados and St. Kitts
 and are likely to be more important in other territories in the future than they have been
 in the past. The projections shown in Table llb are thus based on a rate of expansion of
 acreages of 5% between 1958 and 1965, 3%between 1965 and 1970 and l%between 1970 and
 1975. In Table llc acreage reaped is taken at 95% of the total under cane for projection 1,
 and 90% for projection 2.

 As regards rice, no, or little expansion is seen in the acreage of the two smaller pro-
 ducers, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, but in British Guiana, by far the largest pro-
 ducer, the expansion of the rice industry and its development as a major exporter are ma-
 jor policies of government and the industry. Three major development projects are under-
 way which will bring new acreages into rice production. Programmes for the drainage of
 now unused land will eventually bring into cultivation an additional 100,000 acres for rice.
 Although there might be small increases or decreases in acreages of present small holders,
 it is evident that these are likely to be very marginal in comparison with the major schemes