Part Four


 PROJECTIONS OF SUPPLY




 Chapter 1

 LAND UTILISATION IN THE WEST INDIES


Basic resources
 Conditions of supply in any country are determined by the basic resource pattern. Lo-
cal resources of land and labour may not be limiting factors in countries where there are
untapped and unexploited areas of land and local labour supplies. In such countries capi-
tal is likely to be the main limiting factor. In the West Indies, both land and capital are
limiting factors and, although there has been a plentiful labour supply in most territories,
there is now evidence of regional labour shortages in some small islands and rural areas
caused by migration. The resource pattern is therefore somewhat complex. In general
however, the economies can be characterized by the statement that there is a pressure of
population on land resources, with consequent pressures to increase industrialization, to
increase the net output from agriculture and to increase emigration. The island of Domi-
nica in the Windward Islands and the hinterland of British Guiana are the only areas in which
this generalization is not applicable.

 The limitation of land resources has in a sense simplified our problems of making pro-
jections. Generally speaking, there are known limits to the quantities of land suitable for
any one commodity, and acreage can only be increased by substitution. Although increased
prices could make possible the cultivation of certain lands not now cultivated, this could
only relate to certain commodities and to limited areas. Thus land must impose early li-
mits in total acreage cultivated. Even if we include the island of Dominica and the British
Guianese hinterland, it does not materially expand the extensive frontier since most of the
land in the former is too rugged and in the latter of too low soil quality to represent any-
thing approaching large unexploited land resources.


Existing land use pattern
 Table 9a indicates the land use pattern in the West Indies. These figures were derived from
censuses and surveys taken at various dates for certain territories. The information has not
been brought up to date since the years indicated. An agricultural census is now in process of
tabulation and although no firm information is available, there are preliminary indications that
a number of small farms may have gone out of production, owing probably to migration. Never-
theless, the acreage under sugar and other cash crops is known to have increased, so that even
if food crop acreages have declined, we do not expect to find a decrease either in total crop land,
or in land area under farms.
 Table 9a shows that land in farms as a proportion of total land area varied from 5.5%
in British Guiana (1952)to 91.7% in Barbados (1946). British Guiana however, is exceptional,