industries in the Leeward Islands have been insignificant to date (if we include sugar mil-
ling as part of the primary sector) but a number have been discussed, and although we
cannot make any firm predictions we have assumed some developments in industry both in
Antigua and St. Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla.

 Montserrat, the third of the Leeward Islands administrations, has been a declining
 economy consequent on the falling off of the sea island cotton industry and due also to the
 heavy migration of people of working age. A small number of export bananas are grown
 there, but are taken to Dominica for reshipment as they are not sufficient to justify a ship
 calling there. In 1960, a plant was opened for making tomato paste and this has greatly
 stimulated the cultivation of tomatoes, for which Montserrat is noted; but as these have
 generally found a good market as fresh fruit, the plant has been undersupplied. Generally
 speaking one can predict little likelihood of cure for the economic malaise which appears
 to have overcome this island, so long as migration continues, as it no doubt will continue
 if better work opportunities are not forthcoming. Montserrat has a high livestock popula-
 tion and it may well be that, given a small work force, it is in such products that her best
 chances lie.

 It will be noted in Table 5b that in the Leeward Islands we predict the biggest increases
in the sectors of distribution, commerce and transport, services, and construction.
This is because we predict a continuation of tourist development in Antigua, and its likely
extension to St. Kitts, Nevis and Anguilla, all of which have considerable unutilised beach
resources.


Future growth in the Windward Islands
 In the Windward Islands much the same pattern can be seen, except that the main ex-
port crop, bananas, is capable of gaining a rather greater expansion in acreage than su-
gar in the Leeward Islands. This is particularly so in Dominica and St. Lucia (for de-
scription of factors affecting supplies of bananas see part four). The Windward Islands
have a much more important domestic subsistence economy than have Barbados, Antigua
or St. Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla and are exporters of these products to other territories of the
group and also to Trinidad and Tobago. As noted elsewhere, it is believed that production
of domestic food crops has been reduced by migration and also by competition from
banana production. In spite of the probability that these trends will continue we consider
there will be a small growth in the non-export agricultural sectors; this prediction is
based on the belief that if the federation of the Leeward Islands, the Windward Islands and
Barbados comes into being and there is a customs union, the food producing areas will to
some extent complement the sugar producing and more urbanised areas, and the expan-
sion of domestic supplies might even reduce imports of such products as meat and dairy
products. This pattern of change has already made some headway in Jamaica.

 After bananas, cocoa is one of the main exports of this region and, as is explained in
part four, a fairly rapid expansion is predicted for this crop. In Grenada, spices such
as nutmeg and mace are important exports. Some expansion is predicted for these prod-
ucts but it is probably limited by the fact that they tend to grow best under a fairly in-
tensive type of peasant cultivation and suffer competition from such crops as bananas and
cocoa, which may not be more profitable than spices but have more stable prices in
world markets.