of the group. Barbados has, besides a very important sugar industry (see part four), a
number of manufacturing industries and a growing tourist industry, it being estimated
that tourists now spend there about BWI$15 million annually.

 The Barbados economy showed little growth in the period 1955-60 and our projections
after 1965 are rather more optimistic than experience of past periods might suggest. We
believe, however, that the period 1955-60 has been an unlucky one for the sugar industry
in that climatic and other factors have been against expansion. The basis of our projec-
tions for sugar are explained elsewhere. Yield increases in Barbados in the forthcoming
period are expected to play an important part. Even so, we cannot predict, with the very
limited availability of land in Barbados, that expansion of sugar will be a major factor in
future growth.

 In Table 5b it will be noted that importance is given to the expansion of the manufactur-
ing and mining, construction, distribution, commerce and transport, services, and
government sectors. We base the expansion of these sectors on two main assumptions.
First, if Barbados becomes the seat of a new federal government for the area, weconsid-
er that this in itself will lead to the expansion of the construction and government sectors.
If the federation is accompanied by a customs union as has been assumed we believe that
Barbados will obtain a number of manufacturing industries catering for the enlarged mar-
ket and will also benefit from increased distributive and warehouse activities. The second
assumption is that there will be a very considerable expansion of the tourist industry
throughout the region and that, in Barbados, the services, distribution, commerce and
transport sectors in particular will benefit from this.

 If the proposed federation of the Leeward Islands, the Windward Islands and Barbados
materialises we should therefore expect very considerable effects on all the economies
but in particular on the economy of Barbados. We should not, however, expect the influ-
ence on Barbados to be very spectacular by 1965 and up to that year we have projected a
rate of growth (Table 5b) that is not significantly greater than that demonstrated during
the period 1958-62 when Barbados experienced a growth rate, in terms of real per capital
income of only about 1 % per annum. After that period we expect that, unlike Jamaica
and Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados will have an increasing rate of growth.

 The Leeward Islands are still mainly dependent on sugar, although in recent years
tourism has become a very important industry in Antigua. In Table 5b it will be noted
that sugar (the main commodity of export agriculture) is expected to increase somewhat
from 1960 (which was a relatively poor year) but is not expected to register very signifi-
cant increases either in St. Kitts or Antigua after that. The other important crop in ex-
port agriculture in the Leeward Islands is cotton but, as is explained in chapter 4, no
brilliant future is predicted for that crop.

 Antigua experienced during the period 1955-1960 the fastest growth rate of any of the
 smaller islands. The cause of this was the emergence of an important tourist industry;
 during this period the number of visitors increased from approximately 3,000 in 1955 to
 about 20,000 in 1960, and in 1960 it was estimated that visitors spent about BWI$ 5 million
 in the island. By now the contribution of tourism, in terms of foreign currencies earned,
 exceeds that of sugar in this island. Sugar, however, still contributes somewhat more to
 local incomes, owing to the high import content of tourist expenditures. Secondary