The territory is now entering an interesting and exciting period of economic and politi-
cal development. At the end of August 1962 the territory achieved independence. This
event also poses serious economic problems. The greatest problem is the implications
of the European Common Market to the future development of the economy and to the oil
industry in particular. Another pressing problem is the future of the sugar industry when
the Commonwealth Sugar Agreement expires in 1969.

 On the positive side, keen interest has been shown by overseas investors, particularly
in manufacturing industries and in building and construction.

 It is against this background of apprehension on the one hand and sustained optimism on
the other that projections for the economy of Trinidad and Tobago are being made for
the period ending in 1975 (Table 4b).


Sectoral growth rate in Trinidad
a. Petroleum and asphalt
 Since 1955 when the first submarine well was completed as a commercial producer,
greater interest has been shown by the oil companies in submarine drilling. Indications
are that this trend will continue because of the decline in the output of land wells and in-
creasing costs in locating additional productive wells on land. The major problem of this
switch from land to marine drilling might be a reduction in the labour force in this sector.
Employment in petroleum and asphalt (mining and refining) decreased from 16,426 in
February 1960 to 15,285 in February 1961. It must not be assumed, however, that this
development was entirely responsible for the decrease in the numbers employed.

 Two oil companies have recently substantially expanded their oil refineries and the
total capacity of the refineries is now approximately 120 million barrels per year. Crude
oil will still have to be imported to keep the plants working at capacity, but total importa-
tions will eventually decrease as production increases. It is expected that production of
crude petroleum will increase at the rate of 5 % per annum.

 Production of natural gas has increased from 51,742 million cubic feet in 1956 to
97,652 million cubic feet in 1960. The main users are oil refineries, but substantial
quantities are sold to the Electricity Commission, the cement industry and the fertilizer
plant. Plans have been formulated for distributing the gas to various parts of the island
and consequently significant developments can be expected in the near future.

 At present, fears are being expressed that the oil industry might suffer severely if a
satisfactory arrangement cannot be made by the United Kingdom Government in the
European Common Market negotiations for protection of the industry. If these fears are
realized the future of the industry will be in great danger.

 The growth of this sector is estimated as follows:

 1959 1965 1970 1975
Index 100 157 179 196