We would expect government to become of slightly greater importance in the GDP as
 incomes increase; it is projected to grow from 6.6 % in 1958 to 7.3 % in 1975.

 The projections shown indicate a real per capital (national income) growth rate over
 the whole economy of 3.7% per annum 1958-65; 3.5% per annum 1965-70 and 2.8% per
 annum 1970-75.

 Our projections do not assume absolutely fixed technical coefficients. For instance,
 the relatively rapid increase of the public utilities sector, which includes electricity,
 indicates increased mechanisation of industrial processes. We do however assume that
 only marginal changes take place in the share of income as between profits and non-profit
 income. We have assumed a slight increase in household saving from 6.2 % of household
 income in 1958 to 7 % in 1975. We do not, however, predict any significant increase in
 the proportion which gross domestic fixed capital formation bears to GDP. Thus shifts
 from household expenditure to savings and government are only marginal.


 Employment and productivity
 If the national income increases from J177,265,000 in 1958 to J386,639,000 in 1975
this is a real increment of JE209,374,000 over the period (since figures are all on 1958
prices). If we assume a regular income earner will earn an average of J400 per annum,
this would permit 523,435 new income earners to be absorbed into the work force given
no change in the income of existing members of the work force. During this period it is
estimated that approximately 480,000 people will be added to the population of which we
might say 60 % or 288,000 were possible job seekers. Thus, although we have not project-
ed growth of the economy of Jamaica at a rate comparable to the last decade, our projec-
tions do allow for modest increases in employment and income plus absorption of the new
labour force resulting from population increase.

 Little information is available on productivity in Jamaica and its changes. Compari-
sons with other countries in the production of bananas, livestock products, vegetables
and coffee show an extremely low productivity of labour, but it is probable that Jamaica
is about in the middle of the range of sugar producing countries in this respect. The
growth of the mining industry has almost certainly changed technical coefficients in
Jamaica over the past decade and job opportunities have not expanded at the same rate as
income. While we can predict increases in productivity in the sugar industry consequent
on further mechanisation, which may cause some unemployment, we cannot see very
many material signs that productivity is increasing in agricultural and manufacturing
industries. This is one of the reasons we have favoured predictions of a lower rate of
growth than that which has recently prevailed, and which, while sustaining a fairly well
diversified economy, does not involve greater increases in new manufacturing industries
than in basic agricultural and processing industries. Obviously, radical changes in
technical coefficients could lead to errors in our predictions since the distribution of
income might be radically altered by such changes.

Note. Reference N. 1. 2 (Appendix II) supplied part of the information for this chapter and
 Tables 3a-3c.