few years the volume of migrants leaving the West Indies will be considerably reduced
and this will continue until alternative outlets present themselves.

 Assuming that no alternative outlets for emigration present themselves to the West
Indians over the next three or four years, that is between now and 1965, we can expect
the volume of emigration to fall to approximately what it was in the very early fifties. If
we assume further that the mounting population pressures operate to open up other coun-
tries to West Indian immigrants after 1965, and that the movement takes a few years to
get into high speed, we can visualise the volume of migration at the end of the sixties and
early seventies as comparable to that of the late fifties and early sixties. What we are in
effect assuming is that the volume of migration in the late sixties and early seventies will
be about the same as that of recent years before "the ban" was imposed. The assumptions
which we make about migration in Projection 1 are therefore that the past rate of migra-
tion will on balance be about the same for the years of our projections and that the accel-
erated rate of recent years will repeat itself after eight to ten years when "the ban" has
worked itself out and sufficient internal population pressures have been built up to neces-
sitate another wave of migration from the West Indies.

 In conclusion therefore, we see that the main factors which have determined the rate
of growth of the population of the area offered in Projection 1 are (1) the rate of natural
increase and (2) the volume of migration, both of which are compounded annually in our
calculations. And in so far as it is possible to estimate migration, we have tried to build
it into our projections by compounding its past influence. We offer Projection 1 therefore,
as our estimate of the minimum expected levels of population for the area between 1965
and 1975 on the assumption that the rate of growth of the population will remain constant
at 1.994 % compounded annually, and that the rate of natural increase, though increasing,
will tend to be counter-balanced towards the end of our period by an accelerated rate of
migration. In short, the rate of natural increase and the volume of migration will tend
to offset each other at the overall rate of growth of 1.994 % compounded annually for the
area. In applying population growth to income growth, we have favoured this projection.
However, we present an alternative.


ProJection 2
 The basic assumption underlying our estimates offered in this projection is that there
 will be no migration out of or into the West Indies over the period of our projections. In
 other words, whatever increases there are in the population of the area will be due solely
 to the rate of natural increase or the excess of births over deaths. So whereas in Pro-
 jection 1 we estimate the minimum expected levels of population of the area based on the
 two main variables of the rate of natural increase and the annual volume of migration,
 in Projection 2, Table 2. 1. iv, we estimate the maximum expected level of the population
 on the basis of natural increase alone. Assuming, therefore, that there is no migration
 and that the population of each territory increases over the period of our analysis by the
 same average rate of natural increase as for the last ten years, we derive the estimates
 shown in Table 2. 1. iv. In other words, we are assuming that the future rate of natural
 increase for each territory will be the same as its own average rate for the last decade
 compounded annually. In the case of the Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands,
 available data did not permit us to go beyond the average rate of increase for the last five
 years, so that whereas the rate for the larger territories is the average for the period
 1950-59, that used for the Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands is for 1955-59.