Substituting, we have
 14r
 2,776,056 e = 3,669,528

 14r 3,669,528 1.32185
 2,776,056

 Slg10 (1.32185) .12123
 14r
 log10 ( e = 2.71828) .43430
 .12123
 r 6.08020 019938


which gives us an exponential rate of growth for all the territories of 1.994 %, to three
decimal places, over the intercensal period 1946 to 1960.

 If we further assume that this constant annual rate of growth of 1.994 % will continue up
to 1975, we are able, by fitting an exponential curve to our data and extending it to 1975,
to derive estimates of the population between 1965 and 1975. These estimates are shown
in Table 2. 1. ii. We have also included in Table 2. 1. ii estimates of the population of the
area in 1958 as this is the year on which most of our analysis is based.


 Table 2. 1. ii

 Estimates of the population of the West Indies, 1946,
 1958, 1960, and projections. Projection 1

 Year Projection 1

 1946 2,7,76,056
 1958 3,526,600
 1960 3,669,528
 1965 4,054,900
 1970 4,480,100
 1975 4,949.800



 From these figures we see that the population of the West Indies is expected to increase
from 3,669,528 in 1960 to 4,054,900 in 1965, to 4,480,100 in 1970 and to 4,949,800 in 1975.
This increase is derived from an average rate of growth of 1.994 %, which is not unrea-
sonable for the area as a whole. It is also possible to derive individual growth rates for
each territory.

 On the same assumption that the population of each territory increased from its 1946
census to its 1960 census figure by some constant annual compounded rate, we are able
to derive the individual growth rate for each territory in the same way we derived the
average growth rate for the area as a whole.

 Using the same equation y = aetr the individual rates of growth calculated to three deci-
mal places are shown in Table 2. 1. iii.