We show in Table 1. 2. iv the projected acreage in cropland for the period under review.
Actual limits in the supply of good agricultural land result in projections of a very modest size.


 Table 1.2. iv

 Projected acreage of cropland, by territories

 Territory 1965 1970 1975
 1,000 acres

 Jamaica 681.6 683.2 685.2
 Trinidad and Tobago 355.5 365.8 363.6
 Leeward Islands, Windward Islands
 and Barbados 320.0 340.0 363.0
 British Guiana 458.6 488.6 497.3
 Total 1,815.7 1,877.6 1,909.1


 In projecting the acreages for sugar, the trend since 1950, which was less steep than the trend
since 1940, was given some weight; but for almost all other crops, particularly tree crops, plant-
ing programmes and available land were the main criteria of projecting acreage increases.

 We conclude that, given the characteristics of the high population density in relation to
land resources, there will be considerable pressure in the West Indies for industrialisa-
tion and urbanisation and emigration on the one hand, and for increasing yields on the
other. Population pressure may tend to depress yields by the cultivation of marginal and
sub-marginal land resources; but we believe that the latter will be of importance in the
future period with which we are concerned. The factors which will probably be of most import-
ance in increasing yields are better breeds of plants and livestock and reduction of disease.

 Economic factors are also important, but in the West Indies one of the main cost prob-
lems, low labour productivity, is difficult to remedy. It is also probably unfortunate but
true that so long as labour is plentiful and land is scarce, capital will tend to be spent
rather on improving productivity per acre than per man.

 As a result of our consideration of acreages and yield factors we project the total sup-
plies of commodities. These are summarized for main commodities in Table 1.2. v.

 It will be noted that the rates of growth of production are not high except possibly for
cocoa; the growth rate for this product is approximately comparable to that experienced
by bananas and sugar in the period 1948-60. The products for which the least expansion
is predicted are root crops, sea island cotton, corn and pulses.


Reconciliation of demand and supply and import demand
 The reconciliation of demand and supply figures produced data on import demand for
those products that are partly locally produced and partly imported. Import demand in-
formation for commodities that are wholly imported are derived from the demand table.
Import demand is shown in summary form in Table 1.2. vi.