When we refer to the West Indies, we include all four territories under review. It is
considered, however, that as a national unit, the West Indies is now meaningless, and al-
though in some of our tables and charts we have aggregated the territorial data we have
not made projections of main tables for the West Indies as one country. Present trends
indicate that the four territories will tend to diverge more as they become independent
sovereign states. These differences may influence not only importing and exporting poli-
cy but the very structure of the economy. (For instance the trend in British Guiana seems
to be toward an economic and social structure different from that in Jamaica and Trinidad
and Tobago. ) The continued dependence of the Leeward Islands and Windward Islands on
external assistance also must influence the policy and structure of the territories. As the
study has continued, we have increasingly felt that an aggregation of all territories in the
final results would not be very valuable and have therefore presented our information as
for four separate national entities, except in the summary tables and charts.


Method of the study
 Details of the methods employed are found in the relevant parts of the study and it is
not intended to detail them here. We should perhaps explain briefly at this point the gene-
ral approach to the study.

 Part two presents an account of the projected growth of population and of income prod-
uct and expenditure. The population projections were made especially for this survey
but are provisional pending the results of the 1960 census. A description of the method
of projecting is given in part two, chapter 1.

 The national income projections in part two were made especially for this study and
although for Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica base period figures were available, these
also had to be compiled for British Guiana and most of the smaller islands.

 The method of projecting national income follows from that adopted in the West Indies.
 The method is fairly standard for the various territories, as much of the work has been
 coordinated in past years by the Institute of Social and Economic Research in the Univer-
 sity of the West Indies. However, certain developments appear in this study: One is the
 projections themselves, since no projections have previously been completed for any of
 these territories; the second is the considerable use that has been made of input-output
 tables which have not previously been widely used in this region. We consider that these
 tables are not only desirable but absolutely necessary for projections, since it is only
 through such tables that the effects of various assumptions in the entire economy can be
 gauged. For Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, input-output estimates have been project-
 ed for the relevant years, and for British Guiana, a base year matrix and inverted matrix
 have been presented from which any number of different projections can be made.

 The methods used in making demand projections are described in part three. In
 general the method has been to arrive at income elasticities by using budgeting surveys
 covering different income groups at one period and also by relating consumption trends
 in the past to income trends. Base year food budgets were available for Jamaica and
 Trinidad and Tobago but it was necessary to compile them for this study for the Leeward
 Islands, Windward Islands and Barbados, and for British Guiana. All data were expressed
 first on a per capital basis, and then projected income and population indicators were