PROJECTED LEVELS OF DEMAND, SUPPLY, AND IMPORTS OF AGRICULTURAL
 PRODUCTS OF JAMAICA, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, LEEWARD ISLANDS,
 WINDWARD ISLANDS, BARBADOS, AND BRITISH GUIANA, TO 1975

 Part One

 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

 Chapter 1


 INTRODUCTION

Purpose of study
 The purpose of this study is to project the long term supply of and demand and import
demand for agricultural commodities in the West Indies. We have made projections of
demand and supply for sugar and sugar products, rice, bananas, citrus fruits, root crops,
vegetables, corn and cornmeal, pulses, beef, mutton, pork, goat mutton, poultry meat,
eggs, milk, fats and oils, and cotton. We have projected demand only for wheat and wheat
flour, apples, pears and grapes, tinned and salted meat, tinned fruit and vegetables and
cheese (which commodities are not produced in any important quantities in the West Indies)
and supply only of cocoa, coffee and tobacco products for which demand is small or for
which appropriate demand data were not available.

 Having made separate projections of demand based on estimated income elasticities,
income and population growth, and projections of supply based on expected changes in
acreages and yields, we have arrived at projections of import demand and amounts avail-
able for export.


Period of study
 The projections relate to the years 1965, 1970, and 1975. The base year chosen for
most purposes was 1958, the year for which the most comprehensive data were available.
It should be emphasised that this study does not purport to make short term projections,
the techniques for which are rather different than those for long term projections.


Area covered

 The area which we have covered in this study includes Jamaica; Trinidad and Tobago;
the Leeward Islands (Antigua, St. Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla, and Montserrat), Windward
Islands (Grenada, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, and Dominica) and Barbados; and British
Guiana. At all stages of the study we have considered these as four separate territories.

 When this study was started in 1960, the first three of these territories were formed
into a federation. In 1961 Jamaica and then Trinidad and Tobago elected to withdraw from
this federation. At the present time the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands and Barbados
are endeavouring to form a federation of those islands of the British Lesser Antilles. 1/


1/ The federation had not been formed at the time this publication goes to press.