-94-


 The estimated per capital consumption of 239.1 pounds could be
considered as in reasonably close agreement with the estimates of
Purcell and the United States Department of Agriculture. However, it
is subject to certain limitations. The method of obtaining the estimate,
i.e., using 1960 population and 1959 aggregate estimated consumption,
is not a precise way to allow for tourist consumption of fluid milk in
1959. The estimate of per capital consumption obtained by this method
was above Purcell's. This indicates that tourist consumption is prob-
ably over-compensated for by using 1960 population totals. Furthermore,
the variation in tourist numbers between markets is not accurately re-
flected in the use of 1960 resident population data. Milk consumed on
farms where produced was not included in the total consumption given
in Table 41. The months for which data were collected also may not have
perfectly reflected average per capital consumption of fluid milk.


 Estimates of Potential Demand for Fluid Milk
 in Florida Markets--1970

 On the assumption of constant per capital consumption rates for
fluid milk from 1960 to 1970, the estimated total consumption (demand)
of fluid milk in Florida in 1970 will be 1,554.2 million pounds, using
the 6.5 million population estimate, or 1,707.7 million pounds if the
estimate of 7.142 million population is used (Table 42). In descending
order, the needs for fluid milk in 1970 will be greatest in Southeast
Florida, Tampa Bay area, Central Florida, Northeast Florida and North-
west Florida. The percentage increase in potential demand equals the
estimated percentage gain in market and state populations because of
the assumptions of unit relationship between population increase and
consumption and a constant rate of consumption per capital.

 As was shown earlier, both total cow numbers and production per
cow have continually expanded as the amount of milk used in the State
has increased. Production per cow increased more than 50 percent be-
tween 1950 and 1960, and number of cows 43 percent. Nevertheless,
total production in Florida was slightly below market needs in 1959.
However, if dairymen should achieve an annual production of 9,000 pounds
of milk per cow in the next 10 years--which has already been reached in
several states--even the higher projected demand of 1,707.7 million
pounds could be produced with 5,000 less cows than the number in 1960.
To produce the lower demand for milk of 1,554.2 million pounds, only
173,000 cows would be needed if the rate of production per cow was
9,000 pounds. This would be 22,000 less cows than the number in 1960.

 The technological base needed to obtain an increase in annual
output.to 9,000 pounds per cow already exists. This would be an increase
in production per cow of only 34 percent in the next 10 years, compared
to a 52 percent increase from 1950 to 1960. Thus, it seems likely that
little or no increase or some decline may occur in cow number between
1960 and 1970, provided farm production costs and fluid milk prices