-90-


populations, are not available in current literature. Development of
such measures was beyond the scope of their study. Hence, there appeared
to be little alternative other than projecting fluid milk products de-
mand as a function of population increase in Florida to 1970. This
method should give a satisfactory estimate if the statements of Mehren
and Daly are accepted that (1) per capital demand for food generally is
related to population at a ratio close to unity59/ and (2) per capital
requirements for dairy products should experience little change to
1975.60/ The model used for projecting demand for fluid milk products
in Florida in 1970 is stated below:

 Dfmp ( t)(Cp ) where:
 Dfmp demand for fluid milk products,
 Pt = estimated Florida population in 1970, and
 Cpe = consumption per capital of fluid milk products.

 Fitting acceptable figures for population and consumption rates
 to the equation gives an estimate of the total needs for fluid milk
 products for the State as a whole. Since most dairy farmers and pro-
 cessing and distributing firms produce and/or market their products in
 a specific market area, it is also desirable to estimate the demand for
 each market area. Separate estimates can be made for each area, the
 sum of which equals the total demand projected for the State as a whole.
 Using this method it is assumed that differences in present per capital
 consumption rates in each area will remain constant. Also, the ratio of
 population growth in each area will be the same from 1960 to 1970, as
 from 1950 to 1960, if estimates of area population are not available.


 Estimated Florida Population, 1970

 The population of the State of Florida in 1970 has been estimated
 by Webb61/ at 6,500:000 and by Arthur D. Little, Inc.62/ at 7,142,000.

 59/ N. R. Collins and G. L. Mehren, "Demand Functions and
 Prospects," Agricultural Adjustment Problems in A Growing Economy, ed.
 E. 0. Heady, at. al. (Ames, Iowa: The Iowa State College Press, 1958)
 p. 68.
 60/ Rex Daly, "The Long-Run Demand Prospects for Farm Products,"
 Agricultural Economics Research (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Department
 of Agriculture) Vol. 8, No. 3, July 1956, pp. 73-91.
 61/ John N. Webb, "The Prospect for Population Growth in Florida,
 1960-1970," paper presented at the University of Florida-Rollins College
 Seminar on Florida's Resources for Future Growth, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida,
 December 8, 1960.
 62/ Arthur D. Little, Inc., Review of Major Segments of the
 Florida Economy (Cambridge, Massachusetts: April 1960) p, 4.