food gap analysis is peripheral to the basic food security issue. Emphasis on a food gap often
distort policy away from theentra issue, wic i

 Table 3.1 Projected Food Gap in Malawi 1995/6 to 2004/5

 '000 Metric Tons Maize Equivalent

 Crop Year
 95/6 96/7 97/8 98/9 99/0 00/1 01/2 02/3 03/4 04/5
Scenario Est.

Optimistic (23) (245) (307) (333) (367) (377) (394) (411) (435) (442)
Less Optimistic (24) (302) (344) (388) (440) (470) (509) (549) (595) (631)

Source: An Analysis of the Extent, Cause and Effects of Food Insecurity in Malawi with an Approach to Improving
Food Security, March 1996.


3.1.1 Evaluation of the Food Gap Calculations

 As seen in Table 3.1, the projected food gap jumps from 24,000 to 302,000 mt between
1995/6 to 1996/7. The former figure is based on actual estimates of production while the latter
figure is based on the assumptions used for the projections. The estimates of "gap" are driven by
a host of assumptions of demand and supply. Changes in these assumptions can shift the size of
the gap by hundreds of thousands of metric ton maize equivalent. Present calculations of the food
gap, for example, are based on growth in food production that barely exceeds one percent per
annum. A growth rate of 2.5 percent, which is certainly within reach, could reduce the food gap
by about 300 thousand tons by the end of the projection period. It is estimated that in maize alone
the untapped potential for improved efficiency in the use of fertilizer recommendations is on the
order of 20 percent (World Bank 1995).

 Both the less and the more optimistic projections in food production do not capture the
actual changes that are already occurring which affect agricultural growth. The food gap
calculations do not incorporate the impact of relative price changes and the related supply and
demand changes in response to these price changes. These responses are the basis of a higher rate
of growth. As liberalization proceeds, growth in production is likely to occur, both because of
the greater efficiency with which farmers can use resources and also because government, freed
from some of its former obligations to manipulate the market, can now turn its attention and
resources to the development of infrastructure and the encouragement of technological change.

 The estimated size of the food gap is also biased on the upward side. No account is taken,
for example, of dimba cultivation. Dimba are gardens on small tracts of cultivated land situated
in valley bottoms, usually along river beds. In a recent FEWS Food Security Report, it is


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