3. NATIONAL FOOD SITUATION AND FOOD SECURITY


3.1 Assessing Food Insecurity: The Food Gap Calculation

 Current practice in promoting food security in Malawi has put much emphasis on actions
 which influence the national market supply of food, particularly of maize. The tendency has been
 to act on the basis of observed trends in the national "food gap" a measure of the discrepancy
 between national food production and what is believed to be the total nutritional requirement of
 Malawi's growing population.

 Food gap calculations are mostly used for estimating short term import requirements or
 desired changes in food stocks held by or on behalf of the Government. They are also used for
 identifying policies which could best diminish food insecurity, for instance policies which could
 lead to the expansion of production of one crop or another.

 The FAO (Johnson 1996) has recently completed a detailed analysis and projection of food
 gap in Malawi to the year 2005 for the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development
 (MoALD). The methodology in this analysis used a standard nutritional food gap approach (see
 below). Food demand was calculated using age and sex distribution of the population with
 associated food needs based on an estimated per capital per day energy requirement of 2,325
 ilocalies. Supply was calculated using a maize equivalent value based on caloric value for all
 food crops now being produced in the country. Estimates of production in both smallholder and
 estate sectors were included. Projections of demand and supply were based on a series of
 assumptions noted in the footnote below.3 The results of these calculations are seen in Table 3.1.

 This analysis indicates the possibility of a continual food gap ranging from about 250.000
to 630,000 metric tons nver the nePt ten years. Before donors or government make decisions
based on these estimates of the present and projected estimates of the food gap, it is essential to
clarify the underlying assumptions driving these estimates and their limitations.

 There are two problems with this food gap analysis. First, the assumptions of the analysis
determine its onicome, and these assumptions can lead to a wide range of results. Secondly, the



 3 Projections of demand were based on estimated population growth of 3.3 percent per annum to the year
2000 and 3.0 percent to the year 2005. Projections of supply are based on two scenarios, one optimistic, the other
less optimistic. The less optimistic scenario projects no change in the area planted in maize but an increase of 2.5
percent a year in the amount of area wanted in hybrids and 5 percent a year increase in rpa pilantpi in
comsites- It is also assumed that area under rice cultivation will increase by 3 percent a year. Area under
other crops is assumed to increase annually as follows: sorghum by 2 percent, wheat by 3 percent, millet by 1
percent, pulses by 5 percent, groundnuts by 2 percent, soyabeans by 15 percent to the year 2000, then by 10
percent, cassava by 2 percent and potatoes by 3 percent. Yields are calculated on higher averages in either the
1991-1995 or 1989-1993 cropping period. The more optimistic scenario uses the same yield and hectarage figures
as the less optimistic scenario but assumes area under hybrid maize will increase at 5 percent per annum.