opening up new opportunities to smallholders in particular, but also in the area of agricultural
wage labor. Offsetting these opportunities are a number of factors which need to be addressed if
the already low living standards of the poor are not to fall further.

 Population growth is high, at 3.3 percent per annum. This growth has resulted in a
 decreasing resource base per head of population. In 1968/69 the average area of land cultivated
 per household was 1.54 ha. This had declined to 1.1 ha by 1984/85 and to 0.75 ha by 1994. This /
 small amount per household makes it even more important that the land available be used
 efficiently.

 As will be discussed below, maize production is not keeping pace with population growth.
'To the extent that maize is being replaced by higher value crops or by more drought resistant I
crops this drop in maize production is not necessarily a poble. Except for root crops however,
agricultural yields are static, depressing growth in the smallholder sector. I s

 Environmental degradation is reducing soil fertility. Deforestation an o husband
 are resulting in soil erosion. To maintain crop yields, less fertile soils require icreasn amounts t "
 of fertilizer which poor smallholders can barely afford.

 At present there are estimated to be 225,000 cases of AIDS in Malawi. The World Bank
 estimates that by the year 2000, 2 million people will be HIV positive, and there will be about
 35,000 children orphaned. AIDS will inevitably increase dependency rates in the rural area, and,
 in particular, will probably increase the number of very poor female-headed households as they s@.k 5
 lose adult members and take in orphans from the extended family. "2L t a

 Decisive action should be taken to address issues of food security. Ways must be found
 to increase household productivity and hence income, both on and off-farm, to offset these
 negative trends and to set the scene for self-sustaining growth. The policy changes already
 undertaken are important elements in a market-led response to these trends (see below), but the
 impetus must be maintained.

 2.2 Market Liberalization and Household Food Security

 Beginning ten years ago and increasing rapidly over the last three years, there have been
 many changes in the economic environment which could be classed together under the general
 heading of market liberalization. These have had major implications for household food security.


 There has been a move away from administered prices for almost all commodities,
 including agricultural inputs, cash crops and maize.

 Restrictions on cropping patterns have been removed, allowing smallholders to grow a
 wider variety of cash crops, in particular, the highly profitable burley tobacco.