DOCUMENTARY HISTORY OF THE FLORIDA CANAL 23

 POTENTIAL FUTUMR COoMM3BC
 56. In.connection with our commodity studies a painstaking effort has been
made to estimate the growth f the waterwborne commerce of the Gulf for the
period'terminathg'wtth the-yegrtSr~ 8 The ethnwtemre-baedan thexpeted
normal business increase, and the tonnage estimates are entirely separate from
the increase in potential canal tonnage that might be occasioned by the estab-
lishment of new and more economic transportation facilities between the Gulf
and the North Atlantic. The tonnages being considered in this connection are
not how in existence for transportation by any present means whatsoever. A
rather detailed tabular summary will be found in division D, exhibit 608, of our
report; this tabulation being based on the discussion of the various commodities
themselves which will be found in that division of our report entitled "Com-
modity studies", being division E.
 These estimates of potential tonnage are predicated on such important com-
modities as coal, petroleum, fertilizers, phosphate, sulphur, paper and pulp prod-
uets, naval stores, canned goods, citrus fruit, tung oil, a~d other.commodities to
a total of 23 separate items. The tonnage and the savings have both been esti-
-mated uder-tro-categories, vis: "Pssible" and "probable", and the totals am
as follows:
Possible tonnage (1,600,000 tons), valuation--.....----------- $2, 014, 100
Probable tonnage (25,225,000 tons), valuation .-------.--------. 11, 324, 917
 Total (26,825,000 tons), valuation--------------- -13, 339, 017
 Estimating on the basis of traffic of 1929, the number of additional
 vessels necessary to carry the traffic which is expected to develop
 by 1945, and making thereon the allowance for reduction in num-
 ber of reserve vessels permitted by the use of the canal in com-
 parison with the number that would otherwise be required for
 traffic via the Florida Straits; and making allowance also for
 other incidental savings along the lines set forth elsewhere in this
 report, there may be added to the above total savings the sum of- 1, 000,000
 Grand total aggregate of savings---------------------14, 339, 017
 INDIBRCT BNMFITS BY ABDUCTION OF COMMODITY PRICES
 57. A detailed review of the commodity studies will reveal that in certain
 respects the Gulf commerce competes seriously with that from other regions in
 the Atlantic coast markets, and sales are determined very closely on the basis of
 prices. These studies also reveal that the proposed canal will enable the Gulf
 commodities to be marketed with profit at prices lower than now possible by
 existing transportation media. Assuming, then, that the laws of supply and
 demand will continue in fall operation, the sales prices of Gulf produets-will be
 reduced to correspond to the reduction in transportation costs. Commodities
 from other regions must either meet these price reductions or wholly vacate the
 market. The commodity studies, as indicated, contain a discussion of these
 features which are summarized further in exhibit 609. These indirect potential
 benefits have. again been divided into two general classes, one being estimated
 (rather than computed) on the basis of known facts, and the other being more
 definitely calculated on the basis of the same facts.
 These amount to $3,000,000 and $7,731,000, respectively, or a total of
 410,731,000.
 OTHBR POTENTIAL FUTURE BmINFITS
 58. In addition to the tonnages and savings shown above, allowance must be
 asde for possible future movements of limestone, brick, shell, sand, and gravel in
 local trade, and of bananas, coffee, sugar, and other products in general com-
 merce. These movements are not now capable of estimation, but m the aggre-
 gate must be of considerable importance. The tonnages and savings on these
 commodities should easily serve to offset any uncertainty as to the magnitude of
 the movements of bauxite, cement, and fertilizers and may serve to guarantee
 that the total estimated saving shown will not be in any manner unduly optimistic.
 It is to be noted that the future traffic shown herein does not include Mexican
 trade through Mexican ports, or trade between Atlantic ports and Latin America
 -or the Orient, that might conceivably have used the canal with profit. This
 traffic would undoubtedly increase the savings effected by the canal.