DOCUMENTARY HISTORY OF THE FLOBIDA CANAL Florida to connect the Atlantic intracoastal waterway with the proposed Gulf intracoastal waterway by the most practicable route, as authorized and directed by the River and Harbor Act approved July 3, 1930. 2. Before proceeding to the substane of the report itself, we would invite your attentiocato our letter of October 16, 1931, addressed to the City Commission of Jacksonville, wherein we have indicated briefly some of the sources of information and the principles of accuracy and. completeness that have guided us in the preparation of the data and the deductions therefrom as hereinafter presented. 3. Any proper determination of the economic feasibility of a waterway across the peninsula of Florida necessitates answers to two fundamental questions, which may be stated as follows: (a) What commerce, present and prospective, will benefit from the construction of the proposed waterway? (b) At what cost does that commerce now move, and at what cost will it move after the improvement, if effected? 4. At first glance these appear- to be very simple questions. Having the answers, we shall know the investment value of the project, and then there will remain but the apparently simple problem of designing and constructing the waterway within the indicated limit of investment value. A. Unfortunately, the primary questions entrain a host of secondary questions, each permitting of a number of permutations and combinations of factors, some of which can be definitely determined and some of which must be assumed on the basis of certain known facts. To determine what commerce will benefit involves a detailed analysis of all of the commerce, both the inbound and outbound, both foreign and domestic, of every port in the Gulf of Mexico and their counter- ports in all parts of the world. It involves a study of the origins and destinations of the commodities being transported. It. necessitates an elimination of that commerce destined to or from the Pacific Ocean, also that commerce destined to or from the West Indies, the east coast of South America, and the west coast of South Africa, because this commerce will most advantageously follow the existing ship lanes through the Florida Straits and Yucatan channels. It involves the elimination of all that trade local to or between the Gulf ports themselves; that is to say, internal Gulf trade. It requires the elimination of duplication of tonnage statistics growing out of the fact that out-bound cargo at one port must appear as in-bound cargo or as cargo in transit at one or more other ports. The converse is, of course, equally true, for in-bound cargo at one port must have been out-bound cargo at another port or ports. A mere mention of these circumstances serves to indicate the detailed and intricate nature of the studies necessary to a determination of the existing com- merce that will or may benefit from the construction of a transpeninsular water- way. As for prospective or potential commerce-that which may exist 15 or 50 years hence-the difficulties of determination are far greater. 6. As for the second question-that of costs of traffic movement-it is neces- sary to trace the course of every ship and its cargo, to determine the transporta- tion cost per ton per mile, to determine what the corresponding costs may be through the proposed waterway. It becomes necessary td determine the dimen- sions and operating speeds of all vessels in the Gulf trade and to determine the minimum dimensions of the waterway and the permissible speed therein. When it is remembered that no two ships are exactly alike, that their operating costs vary widely with the season of the year, the ports between which they ply, and the aid or interference accorded by ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream and the influence of winds, it is at once apparent that the problem is one of great detail and much complexity. Notwithstanding the great number of details and the great variety of com- plexities, we have actually undertaken to analyse the commerce of the Gulf ports and to trace the ship movements to and from these ports, all for the calen- dar year 1929; which is the latest year for which complete statistics are available. We have also made a special study of certain commodities, the production and movement of which wi be influenced by the improvement in transportation facilities to follow upon the construction of the canal and which also will furnish the larger part of the commerce utilizing that waterway, if constructed. 7. Our report as presented consists of a number of separate parts, segregated under primary and secondary headings, as follows: Division A. Navigation and commerce: Part I. Navigation (shipping): Section 1. Vessels. Section 2. Voyages by ports. Section 3. Voyages by drafts and dimensions of vessels. Section 4. Steamship lines and agents.