The model also was evaluated to determine the yield impacts that were
sustainable if alternatives are developed with no change in preharvest costs. The results
indicate that vegetable producers could sustain only 20 % of the currently estimated
impacts on yield before causing significant changes in market share that deny a seamless
transition. A seamless transition in strawberry production will require that these yield
reductions be lowered to only 5 % for California and Florida in order for California
producers to experience a seamless transition.
 The model was also used to determine how much growers could increase
preharvest costs with no impact on yields in order to experience a seamless transition
away from methyl bromide use. The results indicate that growers of vegetables could
experience a preharvest cost increase of only 3.5 % before impacts on market share were
larger than that allowable for a seamless transition. Preharvest costs could increase by
only 5 % for strawberries (without any impact on yields) for producers in California to
experience a seamless transition.
 These results indicate that the challenge is significant in attempting to mitigate the
impact a ban on methyl bromide will have on U.S. growers of fresh vegetables and
strawberries. New technologies that reduce yield impacts and control costs will be
significant in mitigating these impacts.

LIMITATIONS OF THE ANALYSIS

 The model used in this analysis included those crops that use methyl bromide in
their current production systems and those crops that compete with those users. As such,
the model does not account for those users who are potential entrants to the market as
conditions of competitiveness change. This precaution is particularly true for
strawberries. Mexico has been a shipper of fresh strawberries to U.S. markets and has not
been able to keep pace with the advances in technology that have been experienced in
California and Florida. If methyl bromide is banned with no better alternatives than are
known today, there would be opportunities for Mexico to enter this market and become a
major shipper of strawberries. This would increase the impact on California producers
and also likely negatively affect strawberry production in Florida. Further study needs to
be done on the Mexican strawberry industry to determine their competitiveness in fresh
strawberries and their potential for taking significant market share in U.S. markets.
 A second precaution that must be noted in this analysis concerns the assumptions
used to solve the model. The impact of a methyl bromide ban will be determined by the
impacts that alternatives will have on costs, yields and market windows. The USDA
workshops were an attempt to determine those alternatives that growers, researchers and
environmental activists believe have potential for this industry. Further research needs to
be conducted on alternatives to accurately determine impacts on cost and productivity
(yield) and on the changes in market windows for crops that undergo significant changes
in production practices. Changes in market windows in marketing these crops will
significantly impact competitiveness and the allocation of production across regions.
Again, more information needs to be generated to fully understand these impacts.


NEED FOR FURTHER RESEARCH