SEARCHING FOR THE SEAMLESS TRANSITION


 The loss of methyl bromide will clearly have significant impacts on producers of
crops who rely on it as part of their production practices and ultimately on consumers of
those crops. A relevant question for policy makers and researchers would be "What
targets must be achieved in reducing impacts for methyl bromide alternatives in order to
experience minimal changes in market shares for existing producers?" That question can
be explored using the model developed for this analysis. It was assumed that a seamless
transition is experienced when market shares after adopting alternatives are within 10 %
of the baseline market shares. The question was explored by using the cost impacts
assumed in the expected impacts scenario and then by "ratcheting" down the impacts on
yield for each of the crops in the model, until the largest impact felt by any producing
area for any single crop is a 10 % loss in the baseline market share. This question was
also explored by assuming no change in preharvest costs and then ratcheting down the
.yield impact until market shares were within 10 % of the baseline market shares. Targets
were also explored for controlling costs on existing alternatives. Costs were adjusted by
increasing the cost of non-methyl bromide alternatives with no expected impact on yield
to determine the increase in costs that could be borne by current users of methyl bromide,
without losing market share to other producers.
 The results indicate that the challenges facing the scientific community in
developing better alternatives are significant. To experience a seamless transition for
tomato production with cost penalties the same as for the expected impacts scenario,
yield impacts would have to be reduced from 20 % for tomatoes grown in Dade County,
Florida to only 9 %. This represents a 55 % reduction in yield loss for currently identified
next best alternatives. Yield losses in other producing areas of Florida would have to
decline 60 %, from the 10 % expected yield impact to only 4 %.
 The challenge to keep Florida producers competitive in pepper production is even
 greater. Current estimates indicate that using a Telone C17/ Devrinol herbicide
 combination for bell pepper production in Florida will reduce yields 15 %. Those impacts
 need to be reduced to 1 % before Florida can experience a seamless transition for pepper
 production.
 The challenge to developing alternatives for double cropping systems is also
 significant. Current estimates for cucumbers, squash and watermelons grown as second
 crops to tomatoes and bell peppers indicate a 15 % reduction in yields for these second
 crops. Those yield impacts must be reduced to 3 % before a seamless transition is
 experienced by producers using double cropping systems in Florida.
 Developing better alternatives is also paramount to strawberry producers. Current
 estimates indicate that a switch to Telone C17/Devrinol herbicide combination in Florida
 will result in a 15 % decline in expected yields. Yields in California are expected to
 decline 20 % when Chloropicrin is used as an alternative to methyl bromide. The model
 indicates that a seamless transition is impossible for strawberry production since expected
 increases in preharvest costs in California ($653 per acre) with no yield impact will result
 in California losing more than 10 % of its existing market share.