watermelons grown in this market window is expected to decline 13.9 % in the expected
impacts scenario (Table 4). Total revenues received from watermelons are expected to
decline $3.4 million under the expected impacts scenario and decline $8.7 million in the
high impacts scenario (Table 6).
 Strawberries. Total impacts are largest for strawberries. The impacts on California
are significant because of the high cost and high productivity of current production
systems in California. Strawberry production in Northern California is expected to cease
under the expected impacts scenario and decline slightly in the Southern California
growing areas (Table 3). Acreage in Florida is expected to increase from 6, 177 acres to
8,302 acres under the expected impacts scenario and to 10,027 acres in the high impacts
scenario. Total strawberry production is expected to decline 35.3 % (Table 4) and
wholesale price is expected to increase 9.4 % (Table 5). Total shipping point revenues are
expected to decline $192.8 million under the expected impacts scenario and decline
$243.1 million under the high impacts scenario (Table 6). Clearly, strawberry production
in Northern California is at risk given the current state of knowledge about alternatives to
methyl bromide.
 Aggregate Impacts. Florida and California stand to suffer similar total losses
when a ban on methyl bromide is imposed if better alternatives are not developed than
are known today. Florida shippers stand to lose $218.4 million (Table 7) in shipping point
revenues across all crops while California shippers stand to lose $218.1 million under the
expected impacts scenario. Those impacts increase to $349.3 million for Florida and
$291.0 million for California if yield impacts increase to the level assumed in the high
impacts scenario. If expected impacts decrease to the levels specified in the low impacts
scenario, shipping point revenues decline $179.5 million in Florida and $143.7 million in
California. Mexico will gain from the loss of methyl bromide because of their lower
reliance on it as a pesticide and because Mexican producers will have an additional 10
years to use methyl bromide under the Montreal Protocol. Mexican shippers will gain
$134.9 million under a methyl bromide ban with the expected impacts scenario. Their
revenues will increase $213.3 million under the high impacts scenario and by $111.6
million under the low impacts scenario. Texas will also gain $33.3 million in shipping
point revenues since peppers grown by their producers do not rely on methyl bromide.
South Carolina also gains $9.4 million from increased shipping point revenues for
tomatoes. In total, shipping point revenues are expected to decline $264.2 million under
the expected impacts scenario. Those impacts increase to a $386.1 million decline under
the high impacts scenario. The low impacts scenario results in a $175.7 million decline in
shipping point revenues.
 Losses in consumers' surplus were also measured in the model as the area under
the demand curve that is lost when a ban on methyl bromide is imposed. Consumer
surplus is lost because of a decline in the quantity of products consumed and an increase
in the prices paid for those products consumed. Consumer surplus is expected to decline
$111.7 million dollars under the expected impacts scenario (Table 8). That loss is
expected to increase to $176.4 million under the high impact scenario. If impacts on
productivity are lowered to those assumed in the low impacts scenario, then consumer
surplus losses decline to $66.6 million.