of each of the other crops was also estimated within 3 % of the actual acreage reported
for the 1994 season.

Model Solution Under a Methyl Bromide Ban

 The acreages planted by cropping system in each of the major producing areas
under a methyl bromide ban with expected impacts on cost and yield are shown in Table
3. Table 3 also provides the expected acres to be planted by cropping system in each of
the producing areas, with high and low impacts on yield. Results in Table 3 demonstrate
that significant effects may be expected if methyl bromide is banned and no better
alternatives are developed than are known today. Total acres planted across all areas are
not expected to change significantly for any crop, but the allocation of production across
producing areas is significant for all crops.
 Tomatoes. Tomato production in Dade and Palm Beach Counties in Florida is
expected to cease under all scenarios for the methyl bromide ban. Southwest Florida and
Mexico are expected to increase producing acreage significantly, offsetting most of the
loss in Dade and Palm Beach Counties. Total production of tomatoes across all areas is
expected to decrease 2.4 % in response to the lower productivity expected in switching to
methyl bromide alternatives (Table 4). The average wholesale price is expected to
increase 0.87 % (Table 5), but the total revenues that growers receive for tomatoes is
expected to decrease $15.7 million (Table 6) in the expected impacts scenario. Wholesale
prices increase 2.17 % in the high impacts scenario and total revenues decline $61.3
million. Florida suffers the greatest loss in tomato shipping point revenues with a loss of
$68.8 million in the expected impacts scenario and a $171.8 million loss in the high
impacts scenario. Mexico increases their shipping point revenues by $51.5 million in the
expected impacts scenario and $108.0 million in the high impacts scenario. Two
significant conclusions to draw from these results are that Florida will lose significant
market share and shipping point revenues and Mexico will gain market share and
shipping point revenues. Within Florida, Dade and Palm Beach Counties will stop
producing commercial quantities of tomatoes and Southwest Florida will increase
production to offset some of that loss.
 Peppers. The impacts are even more significant for peppers. Acreage of bell
peppers in Florida is expected to decline 65 % (Table 3) given existing alternatives that
were identified in the methyl bromide workshops hosted by the USDA. Acreage in Texas
and Mexico are expected to increase significantly, offsetting the loss experienced in
Florida. Total acres planted to bell peppers across all areas are expected to increase 4 %.
The largest negative impact again is felt by Palm Beach County, Florida, where planted
acreage of peppers is expected to decline from 14,310 acres to 3,066 acres in the
expected impacts scenario. The West Central Florida producing area is also expected to
decrease acres of peppers from 9,448 acres to 5,203 acres in the expected impacts
scenario. The loss of pepper acreage in Florida is more than offset with increased acreage
in both Texas and Mexico. Neither of these areas use methyl bromide as a predominant
production practice and Texas is expected to increase acreage from 5,156 acres to 12,428
acres in the expected impacts scenario. Mexico is expected to increase acreage from
13,339 acres to 23, 348 acres. Total production of peppers is expected to decline by 12.3
% (Table 4) and wholesale bell pepper prices are expected to increase 4.5 % (Table 5).