and to evaluate potential targets for alternatives in order to minimize the impacts on
producers. This was accomplished by developing a North American vegetable model that
accounts for a large majority of the methyl bromide used for soil fumigation purposes for
fresh vegetables and strawberries. This model is then used to estimate the impact of a
methyl bromide ban on producers of fresh vegetables and strawberries who supply those
products to North American markets. The impacts on U.S. consumers of those products is
also estimated.

NORTH AMERICAN VEGETABLE MODEL

 A model of the North American vegetable market was developed to estimate the
impacts of a ban of methyl bromide on producers and consumers of fresh vegetables in
North America. The model expands previous work by Spreen et al. (1995), converting
that model from a winter model to a full year model (a mathematical presentation of the
model is contained in Appendix A). The North American vegetable model can be
characterized as a spatial equilibrium problem. The model is limited to those crops that
use methyl bromide as a pre-plant fumigant and those crops that are competitive with
crops that use methyl bromide. Crops that may be affected by a methyl bromide ban
include tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, cucumbers, squash, watermelons and strawberries.
Producing areas included in the model are Florida, Mexico, California, Texas, South
Carolina, Virginia and Maryland combined, and Alabama and Tennessee combined.
Florida was separated into four producing areas: Dade County, Palm Beach County,
Southwest Florida (near Immokalee, Florida) and West Central Florida (Palmetto-Ruskin
area). Mexico was included with two producing areas: the Mexican states of Sinaloa and
Baja California. California was separated into two producing areas for strawberries:
Southern California (including Orange, Ventura, San Diego and Los Angeles counties)
and Northern California (the remaining California production).
 The U.S. vegetable model allocates production of these crops across regions
based on their cost delivered to regional markets, productivity and the regional demand
structure in the U.S. Inverse demand equations were employed in the model based upon
work by Scott (1991) and used by Spreen et al. (1995). An inverse Rotterdam system of
five equations of fresh vegetable demand in the U.S. was estimated for four selected
markets: Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta and New York City. The system of equations
was estimated for the crops included in the model with monthly wholesale prices and
unloads data collected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing
Service, Fruit and Vegetable Division, Market News Branch. Demand flexibilities are
presented in Table 1. The intercepts of the demand equations were adjusted to reflect
aggregate demand (as outlined by Spreen et al., 1995). The adjustments were
accomplished by dividing the U.S. and Canada into four demand regions and allocating
aggregate consumption across those regions.
 Preharvest and post harvest production costs were estimated for each production
system and area included in the model. Florida uses several double cropping systems in
which a primary crop is first produced, and then inputs from the primary crop are used to
produce a second crop on the same unit of land. Cropping systems used in each
producing area are listed in Table 2 with the per acre preharvest costs, per unit
postharvest costs and yields per acre that have been estimated in producing these crops