Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry

 John J. VanSickle, Charlene Brewster and Thomas H. Spreen

INTRODUCTION

 Methyl bromide is a broad spectrum pesticide that has been identified as critical
for the production and marketing of many fruit and vegetable crops. Parties to the
Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (the international
agreement which monitors ozone depleting substances and provides international
regulations on their production and use, commonly referred to as the Montreal Protocol)
declared at their November 1992 meeting that methyl bromide had an ozone depletion
potential (ODP) of 0.7, well above the 0.2 ODP required to be classified as a Class I
ozone depleting substance. The U.S. Clean Air Act of 1992 requires that all Class I ozone
depleting substances be banned from use within seven years of being classified. The
schedule adopted by U.S. regulators was a complete ban on all use of methyl bromide by
January 1, 2001. The Clean Air Act was amended in 1998 to extend the phase out period
for methyl bromide to 2005. This new schedule is synchronous with the schedule for
developed countries that are parties to the Montreal Protocol, which calls for a 25%
reduction in use of methyl bromide in 1999 from 1991 base levels and another 25%
reduction in use in 2001. An additional 20% reduction in use is scheduled for 2003 with a
complete phase out scheduled for January 1, 2005.
 Soil fumigation accounts for nearly 80% of the worldwide use of methyl bromide
(UNEP, 1997). Tomatoes and strawberries account for more than half of that amount
with 35% and 20% of all soil fumigation applied on tomato and strawberry production,
respectively. The U.S. was identified as using 40% of the worldwide use of methyl
bromide in 1991, but that amount dropped to 32% in 1995 as production of tomatoes and
strawberries declined (UNEP, 1998).
 Spreen et al. (1995) estimated that the loss of methyl bromide would have a $1
billion impact on the winter U.S. vegetable industry, with Florida accounting for nearly
all of this impact. Lynch (1996) estimated that the impact on strawberries could be as
large as a $313.6 million loss in U.S. producer surplus.
 The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) indicated that research and
development could have significant effects in reducing the impact of a methyl bromide
ban (UNEP, 1997). Using the model developed by Spreen et al. (1995), UNEP estimated
that the impact on tomato production in Florida could be reduced from a 61.4%
production loss to 21.8% if yield impacts could be reduced from a range of 20% to 40%
(depending on area produced) to a range of 0 to 40%. Strawberry impacts in Florida
could be reduced from a production loss of 68.7% to 28.3% if yield impacts could be
reduced from 25% to 5%.
 Significant research has been completed for evaluating the yield and cost impacts
of alternatives to methyl bromide (UNEP, 1997). Most of this research focuses on
chemical alternatives to methyl bromide. Many integrated pest management (IPM)
strategies are in preliminary stages of evaluation. The research has resulted in more
reliable data on existing alternatives and development of new alternatives that could
lower the impact on producers and consumers. The objective of this research is to
evaluate the impacts of methyl bromide alternatives on U.S. producers of fresh vegetables