Table 3.--Choice steer price predictive interval tests

 Estimation period
 Models estimated thru previous quarter Models estimated two quarters previous
Forecast Actual Models Models
Period Value Naive Vary-S Vary-RF Naive Vary-S Vary-RF

1978 I 45.77 39.72 42.10 42.10

1978 II 55.06 42.45 46.76 44.95 41.13 42.69 42.69

1978 III 53.75 46.18 53.76 52.24 43.29 47.42 45.50

1978 IV 54.76 46.20 51.60 52.85 44.93 53.36 51.84

1979 I 65.42 50.07 54.60 54.36 48.02 51.44 53.06

1979 II 72.51 57.75 63.56 64.32 54.21 57.35 56.93

1979 III 62.86 68.37 68.47

0f 11.40 6.95 7.20 14.41 11.14 11.18

 a 5.82 6.08 3.98 9.85 0.30
MAE 10. 5.82 6.08 13.98 9.85 10.30


aMAE designates the


mean absolute error of the forecasts.