TABLE OF CONTENTS
 Page

LIST OF TABLES .................................................... iv

LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES........................................... iv

INTRODUCTION ...................................................... 1

 The Varying Parameter Model .................................. 2

 The Varying Parameter Recursive Model ........................ 7

 The Recursive Structural Model............................... 13

 The Varying Parameter Recursive Model and Forecasting

 Performance............................................. 15

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .......................................... 20

APPENDIX .......................................................... 22

FOOTNOTES ......................................................... 24

REFERENCES ........................................................ 25




















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