Florida and California are the two primary supply areas for winter market strawberries.

Both regions utilize methyl bromide in strawberry production. Under a methyl bromide ban,

it is projected that yields in Florida would-decline by 25 percent. No information was available

which provides estimates of yield losses in California under a methyl bromide ban. The

approach taken was to assume that California would experience similar cost and yield impacts

as Florida under a methyl bromide ban. An initial run of the model in which production costs

were slightly higher and yields reduced by 25 percent in both regions resulted in Florida exiting

the market. The results presented in Table E.16 and Table E.17f assume a 25 percent yield

reduction in Florida and a 27 percent yield decline in California. In this case, Florida is

expected to lose market share to California under a methyl bromide ban. The best explanation

for this result is that California yields are higher than Florida. As yields decline, Florida has

less production over which to allocate fixed costs. The result is that Florida producers are more

adversely affected by the loss of a yield enhancing chemical such as methyl bromide.

 In the specification of the model, Florida is assumed to be the sole supplier of

watermelons in May. The impact of the loss of methyl bromide is to slightly reduce watermelon

production after tomatoes in southwest Florida and eliminate watermelon as a second crop in

west central Florida. Total watermelon production is reduced from 4484 thousand hundred

weight to 2690 thousand hundred weight. This decline reflects reduction in production for the

May market only. The model does not consider watermelon production for the June market.


Revenue Impacts

 The impact of methyl bromide ban on FOB revenues is shown in Table E. 18. These

revenues are based upon shipping point prices. Florida FOB revenues for the seven crops