shipments from each supply region. With a few exceptions, the model also performed well in

the quantity of each crop produced.

 The acres planted by cropping system and supply region are shown in Table E. 13. Total

acres planted to tomatoes in Florida is 61,613 which is higher than the 50 to 55 thousand acres

typically planted in the state. Regional distribution of tomato production is fairly consistent with

observed data. All four production areas in Florida produce tomatoes in the model. Mexican

tomato acreage in the model is also higher than observed acreage. The market share allocated

to Florida and Mexico for tomatoes corresponds closely to observed data.

 The model replicates the production of the other crops reasonably well. Total acreages

of peppers, eggplant, cucumbers, squash, strawberries, and watermelons in the model

correspond closely to observed data. The main problem with the acreage allocations in the base

run of the model is the failure of southwest Florida to produce peppers. Southwest Florida is

the largest production area for peppers in Florida. After numerous runs of the model, it is clear

that, given the pre- and post-harvest costs and assumed monthly production distribution, the

model will not produce peppers in southwest Florida.


Modification of the Model to Account for the Loss of Methyl Bromide

 As discussed in Section 4, an extensive survey of extension specialists and university

faculty was conducted in an attempt to identify alternative production systems which do not

utilize methyl bromide. It was generally agreed that the use of plastic mulch would be retained

and alternative fumigants would be utilized. Preharvest costs by cropping system and production