methyl bromide ban would eliminate the states of California, Arizona, Texas and Hawaii as

potential markets for fresh citrus.

 An economic model of the fruit and vegetable industry was developed and used to

determine the projected impact of a methyl bromide ban. A separate model was used for fresh

citrus. The results indicate that a methyl bromide ban would cause a reduction of 43 percent

in the acres of fruit and vegetables planted in Florida. Production of these crops in Palm Beach

County would be eliminated, and total production of tomatoes in Florida would decrease by

more than 60 percent. Other crops with significantly reduced production include bell peppers

(down 63 percent), cucumbers (down 46 percent), eggplant (down 100 percent), strawberries

(down 68 percent) and watermelons produced in south Florida (down 40 percent). Squash

production would change very little. The total loss in shipping point value exceeds $620 million

annually. Annual losses in fresh citrus sales would be $13 million.

 The total economic impact of these losses would include losses in sales, earnings from

associated industries, and employment. Using multipliers to estimate the impact in these areas,

the total loss in sales to Florida resulting from a methyl bromide ban was estimated at more

than $1 billion and a loss of more than 13,000 jobs.

 The losses projected from the ban of methyl bromide do not take into account the

potential from alternative crops that could be grown where these crops leave abandoned acreage

in Florida. It must be remembered, however, that most alternative crops are already grown

during the season that Florida could produce them. The higher prices of resources in Florida

makes it less likely that Florida producers could compete with other producing areas. The

potential offsetting gains from alternative crops was considered to be minimal.


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