Shipments of fresh Florida citrus to other producing states,
1991-92.


Arizona
California
Hawaii
Texas
Total
% of Total U.S.
Shipments


 White Pink
 Seedless Seedless
 Grapefruit Grapefruit
- -------------- 1000
 2 33
 69 852
 0 1
 28 515
 99 1401
 4.3 7.0


 Specialty'
 Oranges Fruit
Cartons ------ -------
 40 6
 966 293
 0 0
 312 82
 1318 463
 6.4 8.3


 aIncludes tangelos, honey tangerines, and tangerines.
 Source: Florida Department of Citrus (1993).


 The model was solved using the modified demand equations over the same 12-year

forecast horizon as the base run. Comparison of the results of the base run and the no methyl

bromide run suggests that most of the impact of methyl bromide ban on fumigation will be

realized in the fresh red seedless grapefruit market. The processed market is not affected, and

only small effects are observed in the fresh white seedless market.

 Revenue losses to Florida grapefruit producers are computed by totaling the on-tree and

FOB revenues from both runs. For each market, the change in revenue resulting from the

methyl bromide ban was calculated. The FOB revenue change over the 12-year forecast horizon

was discounted back to 1991-92 using a four percent real rate of interest to give a net present


Table 5.8.