fresh fruit marketing is determined by a weighted average of the fresh fruit sold in domestic

and export outlets. A similar computation is made for processed fruit. Finally, an on-tree price

is computed for each variety though a weighted average of the fresh and processed prices and

a deduction for picking and hauling.

 The on-tree prices are used to predict new plantings in the next season. Existing trees

are aged one year and adjustments are made to account for death loss. If on-tree prices drop

below $2.40 per box, a yield penalty is imposed in the next season to account for the likelihood

of reduced grove care in the face of an on-tree price below the cost of production.


Solution of the Model

 A base run of the model was solved using data from the 1991-2 season for validation.

A 12-year forecast horizon was used. For further discussion of the base model solution, see

Pana and Spreen (1994).

 To account for the elimination of methyl bromide, it is assumed that shipments of fresh

Florida grapefruit will be banned into the other citrus producing states. Shipments into these

states of Florida grapefruit is shown in Table 5.8. These states accounted for 4.3 percent of

total domestic fresh white seedless grapefruit shipments and 7.0 percent of total domestic red

seedless grapefruit shipments in the 1991-2 season. To account for the loss of the markets, the

intercepts of the fresh domestic white seedless and the fresh domestic red seedless demand

equations were modified. In the case of white seedless grapefruit, the demand intercept was

reduced so that 4.3 percent less grapefruit could be sold at the same price. A similar

computation was made for the fresh domestic red seedless demand equation except the intercept

was reduced to reflect 7.0 percent less marketing at the same price.


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