forced to switch to alternative production practices, and Mexico carries the developing country

designation.

 Watermelon production is shown to decrease because no other significant supplier was

identified for the May period when Florida ships watermelons that rely on methyl bromide in

their production system. Florida ships watermelons in other periods, but production occurs in

areas that do not use methyl bromide. While other shippers have not been identified to substitute

for lost Florida production, it is likely that imports from Mexico and other foreign suppliers will

increase if Florida cannot ship in this period. Some supplies are already arriving from Mexico

and other Latin American countries, but their production currently does not rival that in Florida.

 Strawberry production is projected to decrease because California, the other major

supplier in Florida's market window, also uses methyl bromide and will lose productivity much

like Florida. It is possible that Mexico and other Latin American suppliers may respond by

expanding strawberry production in response to the projected price increase resulting from a

methyl bromide ban.

 Prices of all products in wholesale markets will increase as a result of banning methyl

bromide. Seasonal wholesale price increases during Florida's shipping season range from 0.9

percent for squash to 18.5 percent for strawberries. The prices of those products in which

Mexico significantly currently competes increase the least because Mexico increases their

shipments of these products. Prices of watermelons and strawberries increase by 11.2 and 18.2

percent, respectively, because all shipments considered in this season would be adversely

impacted by a methyl bromide ban.