The North American winter fresh vegetable market model included supply and demand

relationships for tomatoes, peppers,-eggplant, cucumbers, squash, watermelon, and strawberries.

The months included in the model are those months in which Florida is an important supply

region to the market. For tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, cucumbers, and squash, the model

spans the November through May period. Mexico is included as the alternative supply area for

tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, cucumbers, and squash for the November through May period.

Texas is a competing supplier of peppers in November and December. California is the

competing supplier of strawberries. Florida is active in the strawberry market from December

through March. No other region is a major supplier of watermelon in May. The North

American market is divided into four major demand regions whose central points were assumed

to be New York City, Chicago, Atlanta, and Los Angeles.

 Analysis of a methyl bromide ban on Florida citrus growers was conducted in two parts.

First, a model of the Florida grapefruit market was modified to account for the methyl bromide

ban. It was assumed that a ban on post harvest fumigation of citrus would result in a loss of

the markets in other citrus producing states. This scenario was analyzed in the grapefruit model.

It was determined that fresh grapefruit would be reallocated to non-citrus producing states; there

would be no impact on processed grapefruit utilization. The analysis conducted for fresh

oranges, tangelos, and tangerines considered only the fresh market.

 The results of the economic analysis are:

 the loss of methyl bromide would have a devastating effect on Florida winter fresh
 vegetable producers;

 Florida production of tomatoes for the winter market will decline by 60 percent;

 Florida will lose market share in both peppers (63%) and cucumbers (46%);